All the talk around uranium is that it is entering an extended period of high demand, which is also characterised by a supply deficit coming into the market.
Given that, it can pay to cast your eye across the uranium developers listed on the ASX and see what opportunities might lie there.
Image source: Getty Images
This ASX uranium stock is looking like a winner
That's what the analysts at Shaw and Partners have done, and they've given a big tick to NexGen Energy Ltd (ASX: NXG), which they think can add some serious value on the share price front.
I'll get to the specifics of where they think the share price will go shortly.
First, let's see why they like the company.
NexGen is developing the Rook I Uranium Project in the Athabasca Basin in Saskatchewan, Canada, and received approval to begin on-site construction in March.
Shaw and Partners said in their research note that the project is world-class.
It is difficult to overstate the exceptional quality of the Resource underpinning the project. The Measured & Indicated Resource is 257Mlb @ 3.1% U3O8 with over 60% of the M&I Resource at grades of ~17%. To put that in perspective, the average grade of currently producing uranium mines is around 1.0%, with many, including most of the existing ASX uranium mine developers, well below 1.0%. Rook I has the potential to generate annual EBITDA of over C$3.0bn, which would make it one of the most profitable mines in the world, in any commodity.
NexGen itself said it was continuing exploration at the project to further extend the mineral resource.
Shaw and Partners said that NexGen started construction at the project on June 6 and would be hosting an official "shovel turning" ceremony shortly.
The broker added:
Apart from construction progress, another major catalyst is likely to be exploration success. In April 2026 NexGen announced expansion of the high-grade zone at Patterson Corridor East (PCE) and it looks like there is a strong chance NexGen has found another Arrow. The inaugural drill program at the SW3 property commenced on July 6, 2026.
Shaw and Partners said the company had cash and short-term investments of C$970 million, "which is a significant proportion of the current $2.2b pre-production capital estimate'', and the balance would be funded by project finance and additional equity.
Shares looking cheap
The broker added:
The uranium market is in a structural deficit and global supply of uranium of ~150Mlb/yr needs to be dramatically expanded. The market is going to need at least ten new Rook size projects to come into production before 2040. In our view that will not happen with a uranium price below US$100/lb and we expect to see the uranium price substantially higher to incentivise the next wave of supply.
Shaw and Partners has a price target of $24.80 for NexGen shares, compared with the current price of $14.12. NexGen is currently valued at $9.32 billion.
