If you are looking for ASX dividend shares to buy, then one that could be worth considering is Cedar Woods Properties Ltd (ASX: CWP).
That's the view of analysts at Bell Potter, who are recommending the company this month.
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What is the broker saying?
Bell Potter has been looking at a number of factors that could impact the ASX dividend share in the near term.
This includes elevated interest rates, Federal Budget tax changes, and the strength of key markets. The broker said:
Impact of Federal budget & interest rates – National residential prices and volumes fell 0.7% over the 3 months to June, driven by 2026 Federal Budget tax changes and restrictive rate policy. CWP is well placed long term via first homebuyer/down-upsizer exposure (64%), affordable resilient-segment positioning, and structural undersupply tailwinds.
Growth in FY27 & FY28 – Earnings are largely de-risked in FY27 despite a softening in sales and enquiries in 4Q26, with >80% of revenue pre-sold. Our bottom-up analysis indicates CWP could grow settlements +7% to c. 1.2k in FY27, resulting in +6% EPS uplift to 81.4c. We estimate a further +7% settlement growth in FY28 with 4 new projects expected to reach first settlements while several existing projects continue to contribute an undemanding high single digit monthly settlement run rate.
Right time for resi? – Developers and other high beta names tend to outperform the broader market in the lead to a rate cut. Currently no cuts are being priced in, suggesting it might be early to enter the resi trade. However, pricing can change quickly and CWP is, regardless of cycle, delivering +6% earnings growth in FY27 (BPe) while trading at 8.4x 1-yr forward P/E versus 13.9x living sector avg and 10.2x historical avg.
Should you buy this ASX dividend share?
According to the note, the broker has retained its buy rating and $9.30 price target on Cedar Wood's shares.
Based on its last close price of $6.85, this implies potential upside of 36% for investors over the next 12 months.
In addition, Bell Potter is forecasting fully franked dividends of 38 cents per share in FY 2026, 41 cents per share in FY 2027, and 42 cents per share in FY 2028.
This represents above-average dividend yields of 5.5%, 6%, and 6.1%, respectively.
Commenting on its investment thesis, Bell Potter said:
CWP's outlook is positive with sustainable, above sector average earnings growth, with FY27 revenue largely de-risked and a growing number of projects contributing to settlements in FY28. Demand is underpinned by resilient 1st homebuyer exposure and structural undersupply amid population growth, despite tax changes and higher rates.
