BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) shares have been relatively stable through July as commodity prices stabilised and investor sentiment improved.
At the time of writing, the ASX mining stock is up around 1% over the past month, and is nearly 50% higher than this time last year.
For context, the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) is up around 2.5% over the past month, and 4% higher than 12 months ago, at the time of writing.
Can BHP shares climb higher in August? Or has the mining stock now reached a ceiling?
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What happened to BHP shares in July?
BHP suffered from some investor profit-taking early in July after hitting record highs the month prior, in mid-June, but the BHP share price quickly recovered.
The mining heavyweight's shares were supported by renewed investor appetite for mining stocks in July. After a period of weakness driven by concerns around geopolitical uncertainty and commodity demand, investors have started to rotate back into diversified miners.
But improved sentiment was offset by an operational update out of the miner mid-month.
In mid-July, the miner posted an operational update. It announced record iron ore production over the year to the end of June, up 1% to 264.7 million tonnes. Copper, however, was 3% lower than the previous year at 1.95 million tonnes.
The company also announced that while the company has several growth projects underway, BHP is guiding lower copper output this year, with a forecast of 1,650,000 to 1,800,000 tonnes of copper. Iron ore is expected to stay largely flat at 260 to 272 million tonnes.
Copper output has been impacted by a conveyor belt failure at the Carrapateena mine, impacting output at the company's South Australian operations for up to eight weeks.
Here's what the experts expect next.
Should I buy BHP shares in August?
If broker analysis is anything to go by, it looks like the shares are now trading around fair value.
Market Index data shows the majority of brokers have a hold rating on BHP shares. The average $62.30 target price implies a potential 3% upside, at the time of writing.
TradingView data shows the same sentiment. The majority of analysts (14 out of 21) have a hold rating on BHP shares. Another five rate the mining stock as a strong buy, and two rate the shares as a sell.
The average $63.06 target price implies a potential 5% upside over the next 12 months, at the time of writing. But the range between the maximum and minimum target prices is huge. Some forecast the shares to fall around 27% to $44.05. Meanwhile, others are bullish that BHP shares could soar 55% higher to $93.42 over the next 12 months, at the time of writing.
Morgan Stanley is one of the more bullish brokers among the bunch. The investment bank recently reaffirmed its buy rating on BHP shares and maintained a 12-month price target of $67.50. The broker likes that BHP is exposed to surging copper demand. It also thinks the company's iron ore operations are performing well.
The team at Morgans has a hold rating and $60.20 target price on the miner's shares. The broker said the mining giant ended FY26 on a good note, with an operational result largely in line with consensus and a touch ahead of estimates in places.
BHP is expected to announce its full-year results for FY26 on the 18th of August.
