The ASX financial share AMP Ltd (ASX: AMP) may be a strong contender for a surprising turnaround this decade.
As the chart above shows, the AMP share price is up more than 100% over the past five years and has risen 17% in 2026 to date.
Compare that to the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) over the same time periods – the index is only up 2.5% to date, and it's up 21% in the last five years. In other words, AMP shares have generated capital gains around five times more than the ASX 200 in the last five years.
Of course, past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
But, following the company's recent resurgence in financial performance, it could be worth asking what analysts expect of the ASX financial share's dividend payments and whether it's a surprisingly appealing investment.
Image source: Getty Images
Dividend forecast
AMP's financial year is the same as the calendar year, so next month we'll hear how the ASX financial share's FY26 first half went, as well as the first dividend of the 2026 financial year.
According to Commsec's projections, the business is likely to pay an annual dividend of 4 cents per share. That would be the same as last financial year, representing a dividend yield of 1.9%, excluding franking credits.
The dividend isn't expected to change in FY27, with the current projection on Commsec showing a possible payout of 4 cents per share. That also translates into a dividend yield of 1.9%, excluding franking credits.
Is this a good AMP share price to invest?
It's possible that analysts may be downplaying how much passive income AMP could produce over the next couple of years. The business is predicted to have a dividend payout ratio of less than 50%, so there is room for the payouts to potentially be higher.
But if they are right, the AMP share price could be the main driver of shareholder returns. We'll see whether that's positive or negative.
AMP's China partnerships are playing an increasingly important part in the company's overall profit. In the recent FY26 half-year update, AMP reported that its China partnerships grew 24% compared to the second half of FY25, to $56 million.
Overall, the business expects its underlying net profit to be in the range of between $170 million to $180 million in the first half of FY26.
The projection on Commsec suggests the AMP share price is valued at 19x FY26's estimated earnings.
Despite the large rise of the AMP share price, according to Commsec there are six buy ratings, three hold ratings and one sell rating on the business. It may still have more room to run, but other ASX shares could be even more compelling.
