Northern Star shares are rising. Is activist investor about to unlock value?

More changes could be coming as Elliott turns up the pressure.

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Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST) shares are catching investors' attention again.

The gold miner climbed 4% to $20.69 during Monday morning trading, although the stock remains down around 16% year to date.

Zooming out, however, Northern Star shares have gained roughly 28% over the past 12 months, outperforming the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO), which is up around 1.6% over the same period.

So what's driving the latest move?

two businessmen shake hands amid a backdrop of tall buildings, indicating a share price movement or merger between ASX property companies

Image source: Getty Images

Gold and a major investor make headlines

One obvious boost came from the gold price. Gold futures rose around 0.5% to US$4,070.80 an ounce, supporting sentiment across the gold sector.

But Northern Star shares also received a lift after the company revealed a substantial shareholder notice involving US activist investor Elliott Investment Management.

Elliott Associates and Elliott International disclosed a combined long position through cash-settled equity swaps covering 76,194,999 Northern Star shares. Based on the current share price, that represents exposure worth more than $1.5 billion.

The reference prices for those derivatives range from $17.37 to $31.66 per share, suggesting Elliott has built a significant position across a range of prices.

Importantly, the derivatives do not give Elliott direct ownership of those shares. However, the size of the position has fuelled speculation about what the activist investor wants next.

Elliott wants change

Northern Star has been under pressure in recent months after Elliott began pushing for improvements, including board renewal and a broader strategic review.

The activist investor has previously criticised the company's production performance and questioned whether the business could unlock more value for shareholders.

That pressure intensified after Northern Star reduced FY26 production guidance in January, cutting its forecast from 1.7 million–1.85 million ounces to 1.6 million–1.7 million ounces.

The company ultimately reported FY26 gold sales of 1.543 million ounces, with June quarter sales reaching 433,000 ounces.

Northern Star has responded with several changes, including appointing Suresh Vadnagra as its incoming Managing Director and CEO. He is expected to replace Stuart Tonkin in October.

What's next for Northern Star?

Despite the activist attention, Northern Star continues focusing on its existing strategy.

The company ended the June quarter with $1.25 billion in cash and gold, while continuing its $500 million share buyback program, repurchasing $129 million worth of shares during the quarter.

Its major KCGM mill expansion project also remains on track, with the company targeting an increase in processing capacity from 13 million tonnes per annum to 27 million tonnes when commissioning begins in early FY27.

Foolish Takeaway

Northern Star shares are rising today thanks to a combination of stronger gold prices and renewed investor interest following Elliott's large derivatives position.

Whether Elliott's involvement leads to major strategic changes remains unclear.

For now, investors are watching closely to see whether operational improvements, a stronger gold price, and potential shareholder pressure can help Northern Star unlock more value.

Motley Fool contributor Marc Van Dinther has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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