Up 29% since May, can Wesfarmers shares keep surging higher?

A leading analyst delivers his verdict on Wesfarmers' outperforming shares.

Wesfarmers Ltd (ASX: WES) shares have been on a tear since plumbing a one-year closing low of $71.26 on 18 May.

During the Tuesday lunch hour today, shares in the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) conglomerate – whose retail subsidiaries include Bunnings Warehouse, Kmart Australia, Officeworks, and Priceline – are trading for $91.73 apiece.

That sees the Wesfarmers share price up an impressive 28.7% in just two months.

Taking a step back, the ASX 200 stock is up 12.2% in 2026, well ahead of the 0.4% year-to-date gains posted by the benchmark index.

And that's not including the $1.02 per share fully-franked dividend the company paid to eligible stockholders on 31 March. Wesfarmers stock trades on a 2.8% fully-franked trailing dividend yield.

Looking ahead, however, Alto Capital's Tony Locantro believes the company may struggle to deliver further outperformance over the coming months (courtesy of The Bull).

Young couple at the counter of a hardware store.

Image source: Getty Images

Wesfarmers shares: Buy, hold, or sell?

"Market leading businesses include retailers Bunnings, Kmart Group and Officeworks," Locantro noted.

As for Wesfarmers' recent financial performance, he said:

The company delivered a strong first half result in full year 2026, reporting net profit after tax of $1.603 billion, up 9.3%, reflecting continued earnings growth across its retail portfolio amid disciplined operational execution.

But following the strong gains posted by Wesfarmers shares, Locantro issued a sell recommendation on the stock. He concluded:

Despite these strong fundamentals, much of the company's quality and long-term growth outlook appear fully reflected in its premium valuation. While Wesfarmers remains an outstanding long-term business, future upside may be constrained by elevated market expectations.

Given the strong share price performance and demanding valuation, the current risk-reward balance supports taking profits at current levels.

What's the latest from the ASX 200 stock?

Wesfarmers reported its half-year results (H1 FY 2026) on 19 February.

The 9.3% year-on-year profit boost Locantro mentioned above was driven by a 3.1% increase in half-year revenue to $24.21 billion.

And earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) leapt by 8.4% to $2.49 billion.

"Wesfarmers' increase in profit was supported by strong earnings contributions from our largest divisions – Bunnings, Kmart Group and WesCEF," Wesfarmers managing director Rob Scott said of the results.

Addressing the challenging market conditions the company faced in the six months to 31 December, Scott added:

Despite a modest improvement in consumer demand, higher costs continued to weigh on many households and businesses, and residential construction activity remained subdued. The divisions performed well, driving productivity to mitigate cost pressures and keep prices low for customers.

Amid high market expectations, Wesfarmers shares closed down 5.6% on the day of the results release.

Motley Fool contributor Bernd Struben has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Wesfarmers. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Wesfarmers. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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