CSL Ltd (ASX: CSL) shares finished last week 1% higher at $123.32, extending their recent rebound. The biotech giant's shares have climbed 16% over the past month and are now up around 34% since their early June lows.
Even so, it's important to keep that rally in perspective. CSL shares remain down about 29% in 2026 and have lost roughly half their value over the past 12 months.
So, after one of the biggest falls in the company's history, could CSL shares double from here and reclaim their former highs?
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Changed narrative
For decades, CSL built a reputation as one of the ASX's highest-quality companies, delivering consistent earnings growth through its leadership in plasma-derived therapies and global healthcare operations.
That reputation took a major hit over the past year.
A string of earnings downgrades, leadership changes, and around US$5 billion in non-cash impairments, largely tied to the CSL Vifor acquisition, have weighed heavily on investor confidence.
Impairments, downward guidance
For almost two years, the ASX biotech stock has been locked in a persistent downtrend. This has been punctuated by sharp 10% to 15% rallies before another disappointing update pushed shares to fresh multi-year lows.
The latest setback came in May, when management guided to FY26 revenue of around US$15.2 billion, about 4% below consensus forecasts, and NPAT of roughly US$3.1 billion, around 7% below expectations. The company also flagged another US$5 billion of non-cash impairments across FY26 and FY27.
Since then, little has changed fundamentally. While Tavneos faces potential withdrawal in the US and Europe, analysts note the product contributes only around 1% of group revenue.
The team at Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG) believes expectations have now been reset to a relatively low level. Analysts expect modest earnings growth through FY28 and argue that even small earnings beats could support the share price.
What do the experts think?
Broker sentiment has become more cautious than it was a year ago.
According to TradingView data, 10 of 18 analysts now rate CSL shares as a hold. The remaining eight have buy or strong buy recommendations. The average price target sits at $138.88, implying around 13% upside from current levels.
Some analysts remain far more optimistic. UBS retained its buy rating at the start of this month with a $158 price target. The broker argues that much of the bad news surrounding Vifor has already been priced into the shares.
Morgans is also positive, maintaining a buy recommendation and a $147.59 target price. However, it expects a recovery in investor confidence to take time as the market waits for clearer evidence that earnings have stabilised.
A handful of analysts reportedly see the shares reaching as high as $197.85 over the next year. That represents potential gains of about 60%.
That would be an impressive recovery, but still well short of doubling from current levels. Based on current broker forecasts, a return to CSL's record highs appears more realistic over several years than within the next 12 months.
