ASX energy stock Amplitude Energy Ltd (ASX: AEL) has fallen significantly in 2026.
It is an energy exploration and development company focused on conventional gas projects in southeast Australia.
The company also has interests in oil and condensate-producing assets in the Cooper Basin.
Since the start of the year, its share price has fallen over 50%.
However the team at Bell Potter have released a new report. The broker is now suggesting it could be set for a significant rebound following the company's June quarter results.
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Softer demand, but position remains solid
According to Bell Potter, Amplitude Energy's June 2026 quarter was broadly in line with expectations.
Gas production at its main Orbost plant was slightly lower because the company intentionally reduced output as warmer weather and strong gas supply in eastern Australia weakened demand and spot prices.
The average gas selling price also dipped slightly to the previous quarter.
Despite these softer market conditions, the energy company still met its full-year production guidance. It ended the quarter in a healthy financial position with $138 million in cash and relatively low net debt of $37 million.
Investors should also expect the company to provide production guidance for FY27 when it releases its full-year results in August.
Existing operations improve
Bell Potter also noted that although the Orbost site was temporarily shut down for maintenance during the quarter, the work improved the plant's efficiency and allowed it to achieve record production rates once it restarted.
Amplitude Energy has also confirmed that its major growth project, the East Coast Supply Project (ECSP), remains on budget and on track to begin production in 2028.
The final exploration well will be drilled soon, and importantly, Amplitude Energy says the entire project can be funded through its existing financing and cash flow, meaning it does not currently need to raise additional capital.
Upside in tact for this ASX energy stock
Based on this guidance, Bell Potter has retained its buy recommendation on this ASX energy stock.
It has also retained its price target of $2.50, which indicates almost 80% upside from current levels.
AEL is a pure-play leverage to the southern east coast Australia gas market with the majority of its gas sales under stable contracted prices. The company's flagship 100%-owned Gippsland Basin asset is now consistently operating near nameplate capacity (68TJ/day); debottlenecking could see incremental improvements.
AEL's 50%-owned Otway Basin expansion is supported by existing gas discoveries and up to 24TJ/day net Gas Sales Agreements with EnergyAustralia and AGL Energy.
