It has been one of the most dramatic destructions of shareholder value in recent ASX history.
WiseTech Global Ltd (ASX: WTC) shares have fallen approximately 70% over the past twelve months. The company has shed tens of billions of dollars in market capitalisation. This has landed the logistics software company among the worst-performing stocks in the entire ASX 200.
Yet something has shifted in the past week.
There are small but noticeable signs that at least some investors are beginning to reassess.
The question remains whether that reassessment is warranted.
What actually drove the 70% fall
The sell-off in WiseTech shares has been primarily driven by governance concerns rather than by any fundamental deterioration in the CargoWise business itself.
Founder and Executive Chair Richard White has faced a series of allegations over the past twelve months, including separate ASIC and AFP investigations and most recently reports of an AFP inquiry into alleged trafficking matters, which White has emphatically denied.
Each successive wave of negative coverage has eroded institutional confidence in a way that the underlying business numbers alone have not justified.
WiseTech has maintained its FY26 guidance, expecting revenue of US$1.39 billion to US$1.44 billion and EBITDA of US$550 million to US$585 million at a healthy 40% to 41% margin.
However, the market has stopped paying a premium multiple for that growth while the governance cloud remains.
The case for a rebound for WiseTech shares
The bull case starts with the business itself, which has not broken.
CargoWise is used by 23 of the world's top 25 global freight forwarders. Switching costs are high and as a result customer retention has remained robust even through the governance turmoil.
The platform serves more than 22,000 logistics companies across 193 countries and is deeply embedded in mission-critical workflows that cannot be easily or cheaply replaced.
Furthermore, CEO Zubin Appoo recently purchased approximately $1 million of WiseTech shares on-market. This is a signal of insider confidence that management believes the shares are trading below intrinsic value.
On valuation, WiseTech shares trade on approximately 28 times FY27 earnings and closer to 15 times FY28 earnings.
At 15 times FY28 earnings, a business with WiseTech's market position and expected earnings growth rate looks quite attractive. The broker community agrees.
Twelve of the fifteen analysts covering WiseTech rate the stock as a buy or strong buy, with none recommending a sell.
Bell Potter retains a buy rating with a price target of $71.75, implying significant upside from today's price.
The case against WiseTech shares
Governance concerns are not resolved simply because the share price has fallen far enough.
Stuart Bromley from Medallion Financial Group retains a hold rating. The broker notes that while WiseTech remains one of Australia's highest-quality technology businesses, near-term sentiment may remain volatile amid management executing its long-term strategy.
For the share price to sustain a recovery rather than simply bounce from deeply oversold levels, the market will need greater clarity on three things: the resolution of the Richard White legal matters, confirmation that the CargoWise Value Pack transition with large customers is progressing, and a FY26 full-year result in August that confirms the guidance the company has maintained throughout the year.
None of those three catalysts has yet landed.
Until they do, investors will continue to face a great deal of uncertainty.
Foolish takeaway
WiseTech shares are down 70% for reasons that are substantially governance-driven rather than business-driven.
The CargoWise platform is intact, guidance has been maintained, the CEO is buying shares, and twelve of fifteen brokers see significant upside.
Whether WiseTech shares are ripe for a rebound depends on whether the governance cloud lifts in FY27.
If it does, the business case for a material recovery is well-established.
If it does not, patience will be required for longer than most investors would like.
