CSL Ltd (ASX: CSL) shares have endured a brutal fall over the past year, with investors watching nearly a decade of gains disappear.
The healthcare giant shares are now trading around levels last seen in March 2017, effectively wiping out nine years of share price appreciation. However, there are early signs sentiment may be improving, with CSL shares rallying an impressive 34% over the past month.
Even after that rebound, the stock remains down around 50% over the past 12 months. That raises the big question for investors: can CSL shares eventually recover to last year's highs above $275?
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What do analysts think?
Broker sentiment remains divided. According to TradingView data, 18 analysts have updated their ratings on CSL shares over the past three months. Eight recommend buying the stock or rate it a strong buy, while the remaining 10 have a hold recommendation.
Despite the mixed views, the average price target sits at $141.53, implying upside of around 16% from current levels. The most bullish analyst has a target price of $201.07, suggesting potential upside of roughly 65%.
Among the more optimistic brokers is Morgans, which recently retained its Buy rating and a price target of $147.59. That implies approximately 20% upside, with the broker continuing to back the company's long-term fundamentals.
Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG), however, remains more cautious. The broker has a neutral rating and a price target of $114, reflecting uncertainty across CSL's core plasma and albumin businesses, alongside ongoing competitive pressures.
A quality business facing headwinds
Not long ago, CSL shares were widely regarded as one of the ASX's most dependable compounders. The company built its reputation on consistent earnings growth, global leadership in plasma-derived therapies, and a long history of delivering strong returns for patient shareholders.
That perception has changed dramatically over the past year. A series of earnings downgrades, leadership changes, and roughly US$5 billion in non-cash impairments linked to the CSL Vifor acquisition have significantly dented investor confidence. Combined, these factors have contributed to the stock's decline of more than 50%.
Yet despite the sharp sell-off, the underlying business remains highly defensive. CSL is still the world's second-largest plasma-derived therapies company, operating in an industry with high barriers to entry, stringent regulation, and complex global supply chains. Those competitive advantages are difficult for rivals to replicate.
Can CSL shares recover?
CSL's latest guidance suggests the business continues to grow, albeit at a slower pace than investors had become accustomed to.
Management expects FY26 revenue of around US$15.2 billion and underlying net profit after tax and amortisation (NPATA) of approximately US$3.1 billion on a constant currency basis.
The biggest challenge remains the US immunoglobulin business within CSL Behring.
While demand continues to grow at a healthy mid-to-high single-digit rate, supply constraints and pricing dynamics have prevented the company from fully capitalising on that demand. That mismatch has weighed on margins and earnings momentum, helping explain why investor sentiment has remained subdued.
Whether CSL shares can eventually reclaim their previous highs will likely depend on management's ability to improve execution, restore earnings growth, and rebuild market confidence.
For long-term investors, the recent rebound may be encouraging. But with analysts still split and operational challenges yet to fully ease, the path back to $275 is unlikely to be a straight line.
