The S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) gained 0.5% in June, with only one of the big four ASX 200 bank stocks outperforming those returns.
The outperforming stock in question is National Australia Bank Ltd (ASX: NAB).
NAB shares closed out May trading for $37.33. When the closing bell sounded on 30 June, shares were swapping hands for $37.86. That saw the NAB share price up 1.4% in the month just past.
ANZ Group Holdings Ltd (ASX: ANZ) shares also finished June in the green but gained just less than the ASX 200.
ANZ shares closed May trading for $35.20 and ended June at $35.35 apiece, up 0.4%.
Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA) shares went the other direction.
Shares in Australia's biggest bank closed on 29 May trading for $165.02. On 30 June, shares closed the day at $164.62 each. This put the CBA share price down 0.2% in the month just past.
Which brings us to Westpac Banking Corp (ASX: WBC). Westpac shares closed May at $36 and ended June trading for $35.21 each, putting the Westpac share price down 1.2% for the month.
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What moved the big four ASX 200 bank stocks in June?
There was no price-sensitive news out from any of the big four ASX 200 bank stocks in June.
But investors breathed a sigh of relief on 16 June when the Reserve Bank of Australia kept interest rates on hold at 4.35%.
Still, mortgage holders and ASX investors alike have already suffered through three RBA interest rate hikes this year.
Coupled with stubbornly elevated inflation and the Federal Budget's changes to negative gearing policies for residential homes, a number of analysts have cautioned over lower demand for mortgage loans and increasing bad debts.
According to Regal Funds portfolio manager Mark Nathan:
With banks, you always get a multiplier effect. If houses lose a bit of value, people don't feel as wealthy, they spend less money, they invest less, so you get a multiplier effect with the banks.
That's the big change since the budget. The market is less comfortable with what was previously a reasonable growth outlook and downgrading that to a more modest growth outlook.
Judo bank gets walloped
Turning to one of the smaller ASX 200 bank stocks, Judo Capital Holdings Ltd (ASX: JDO) shares got smashed in June, closing the month down a sharp 39.7%.
The carnage followed a market update on 25 June, in which management increased Judo's forecast FY 2026 cost of risk to between $116 million and $122 million.
Judo also downgraded its FY 2026 profit before tax guidance to be between $163 million and $169 million. That's down from prior FY 2026 profit expectations of between $180 million to $190 million.
