The Rio Tinto Ltd (ASX: RIO) share price has fallen into the red in Thursday morning trade.
At the time of writing, the ASX mining stock is down around 1% and trading at $185.41 per share.
This morning's trading price means Rio Tinto shares have fallen just over 5% from an all-time high of $194.47 recorded in early June, but they're still around 25% higher year to date and a huge 75% higher than this time last year.
The miner's annual share price gains have put Rio Tinto in 8th place on the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) by market capitalisation.
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Why has the Rio Tinto share price flown higher over the past 12 months?
There has been a resurgence of confidence in copper and iron ore – the two key commodities Rio Tinto produces – in 2026, creating a strong tailwind for the Rio Tinto share price.
Trading Economics data shows that the price of iron ore spiked at a multi-year high in May and is around 7% higher than 12 months ago, at the time of writing.
Meanwhile, copper spiked to an all-time high earlier this month and is still trading around those high levels. Copper prices are now 33% higher than the trading prices seen 12 months ago.
But surging commodity prices aren't the only thing driving the Rio Tinto share price close to record highs.
In April, the ASX miner reported impressive first-quarter FY26 production results. It confirmed a 9% year-on-year increase in copper-equivalent production and a 13% increase in iron ore production in the Pilbara region. The result means Q1 FY26 was the second-best Q1 production the miner has achieved since 2018, despite weather disruptions and reduced shipments.
At the time, Rio Tinto also confirmed that it is focusing on expanding production volumes across its core commodity assets.
Why are the shares falling again today?
There isn't any price-sensitive news out of the miner today to explain the latest slump. The lower share price is most likely the result of a pullback in commodity prices. At the time of writing, iron ore prices are down around 0.4%, and copper is down around 1.4% for the day.
Are Rio Tinto shares still a buy, or has the opportunity now passed?
According to analyst sentiment, it looks like the Rio Tinto share price has reached its peak.
Market Index data shows that the majority of brokers have a hold rating on Rio Tinto shares. The latest $173.26 target price implies a potential 9% downside for Rio Tinto shares, at the time of writing.
TradingView data reflects something similar. Eight out of 16 analysts have a hold buy rating on the shares. Another six have a buy or strong buy rating, and two rate Rio Tinto shares as a strong sell.
The average $180.34 target price implies a potential 3% downside at the time of writing. Although some more bullish analysts still think the Rio Tinto share price could increase another 14% to $210.66. Those who are more bearish are tipping the shares to fall 23% to $142.68, at the time of writing.
