Elders Ltd (ASX: ELD) and Brambles Ltd (ASX: BXB) shares have underperformed the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) both year to date and over the past 12 months.
In afternoon trade on Thursday, Elders shares are up 1.1%, trading for $5.38 apiece.
Despite that uptick, shares in the ASX 200 agribusiness remain down 12.5% over the past 12 months and down 21% in 2026. Offering some solace to investors nursing those losses, Elders shares trade on a 6.7% fully-franked trailing dividend yield.
Brambles shares have had an even tougher year.
Up 2% today at $16.74 each, shares in the ASX 200 supply pallets and crates supplier are down 28% over 12 months and down 26.6% year to date. Brambles stock trades on a partly franked 3.9% trailing dividend yield.
To put this rather dismal performance in some perspective, the ASX 200 has gained 1.6% over the past year and is down 0.6% in 2026.
And looking ahead, Red Leaf Securities' John Athanasiou expects both stocks will continue to underperform over the coming months (courtesy of The Bull).
Here's why.
Image source: Getty Images
Time to sell Brambles shares?
"This supply chain logistics giant has moved from a premium defensive compounder to a more challenged operational story following recent earnings and sales revenue downgrades," Athanasiou said.
And rising costs are chief among those more challenging conditions.
According to Athanasiou:
Disruptions in its United States pallet pooling network have exposed execution issues, resulting in higher costs. While the CHEP business model remains structurally sound, short-term performance is weighed down by operational inefficiencies and inflationary pressures.
Summarising his sell recommendation on Brambles shares, Athanasiou concluded:
The downgrade cycle has shifted sentiment, with the market now questioning the sustainability of mid-term growth expectations. Until execution stabilises and margins recover, Brambles lacks the earnings momentum required to justify a premium multiple, leaving risk skewed to the downside, in our view. The shares have fallen from $22.10 on May 15 to trade at $16.34 on May 28.
Should I exit Elders shares today?
Atop recommending selling Brambles shares, Athanasiou also has a sell recommendation on Elders shares.
"The company's exposure to agriculture, livestock and rural services make it highly sensitive to seasonal and commodity-driven swings," he said.
And rising debt levels could pose further headwinds.
Athanasiou noted:
While expansion through acquisitions has supported scale, it has also increased leverage, which, in our view, reduces balance sheet flexibility. Without a clear cyclical upswing, the outlook remains challenging.
Then there's the impact of the Middle East conflict on energy and diesel prices.
According to Athanasiou:
Elders is exposed to elevated diesel prices, which remains a risk to the company's cost base. In our opinion, the stock offers limited defensive characteristics, making it more suitable as a sell than a hold at this stage of the cycle. The shares have fallen from $7.20 on May 15 to trade at $5.58 on May 28.
