Select Harvests Ltd (ASX: SHV) shares were on form on Thursday.
The ASX 300 stock ended the session around 8% higher at $3.90.
But if you thought the gains were over, think again.
That's because Bell Potter believes the almond producer's shares could be destined to deliver even greater returns over the next 12 months.
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What is the broker saying about this ASX 300 stock?
Bell Potter notes that Select Harvests delivered a result that was short of expectations in the first half of FY 2026.
However, it points out that this was due largely to the timing of third-party processing and VAP revenues. It explains:
SHV reported 1H26 underlying NPAT below our forecasts at $29.1m (vs. BPe $41.2m) largely driven by timing of third party processing and VAP revenues. Key result metrics include: Operating results: Revenue of $59.0m was down -44 % YoY (vs. BPe $104.4m). Operating EBITDA of $62.6m was up +8% YoY (and vs. BPe of $77.6m). Operating NPAT was up +8% YoY to $29.1m (and vs. BPe of $41.2m). 1H26 results are predicated on a crop of 29,500t (vs. BPe of 29,000t and 1H25 of 25,250t) and an almond price of A$10.21/kg (vs. BPe of A$10.00/kg).
Elevated drying costs have been largely mitigated by volume and pricing outcomes, with the weaker result reflecting the timing of revenue recognition from third party processing (in 2H26e and up ~8,000t YoY) and VAP sales (with 20% processed vs. 35% in 1H25).
The ASX 300 stock's outlook was better. Bell Potter highlights:
Key outlook comments include (1) A FY26e crop forecast of 28,000-31,000t and orchards costs of $219.6m, which would imply Farming EBIT of $66-98m at the 1H26 price of $10.21/kg (BPe of $81m); (2) 2H26e to see the financial benefit of external grower volumes (~8,00/t YoY) and VAP sales (on SHV's crop); (3) SHV announced an up to 10% share buyback and a 3.5¢ps DPS (the first dividend since 2022); and (4) announced Optimus phase 4 looking to lift processing capacity to 65,000t (from 55,000t) and targeting $700m revenue by FY30e.
Big potential returns
In response to the results, Bell Potter has retained its buy rating and $5.30 price target on the company's shares.
Based on its current share price of $3.90, this implies potential upside of 36% for investors over the next 12 months.
In addition, a 2.6% dividend yield is expected over the same period.
Bell Potter concludes:
SHV continues to deliver on cost and growth initiatives to improve earnings quality and is executing in an environment where the California bearing acreage is in contraction, implying a more favourable pricing backdrop over FY26-28e.
