Treasury Wine Estates Ltd (ASX: TWE) shares are finding some support on Friday after a tough run for the Penfolds owner.
At the time of writing, the Treasury Wine share price is up 3.11% to $4.30.
Even with today's gain, the stock remains under heavy pressure. Treasury Wine shares are still down around 20% in 2026 and have lost about 50% over the past year.
The latest buying comes after billionaire investor Olivier Goudet increased his stake again, while one broker also upgraded the stock to a buy rating.
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Billionaire investor keeps buying
The main catalyst appears to be another move from French billionaire Olivier Goudet.
According to a substantial holder notice, Goudet now has a 9.04% stake in Treasury Wine Estates.
The notice shows he holds about 73 million shares after his latest $31 million purchase of 7.3 million shares.
The latest purchase adds to a string of recent buys and leaves Goudet as one of the company's largest shareholders.
And with Treasury Wine shares down 50% over the past year, it is not hard to see why the buying has caught the market's eye.
Morgans sees more upside
The buying has also been helped by a more positive broker call.
Morgans has reportedly upgraded Treasury Wine shares to a buy rating, with a price target of $5.30.
Based on the current share price, that suggests potential upside of more than 20%.
While a broker upgrade does not fix the business, it does give investors another reason to revisit a heavily sold-down stock.
The business still has work to do
Treasury Wine has been dealing with weak demand, pressure in key markets, and investor frustration.
In October, the company withdrew its FY26 earnings guidance and paused its buyback after problems in China and the US.
It also posted a large first-half loss, with impairments weighing heavily on the result.
However, its latest operating update gave the market a few better numbers to consider.
In the March quarter, China depletions rose 40% on a seasonally adjusted basis. ANZ depletions grew 11%, Asia ex-China rose 14%, and US market depletions improved 9.1%.
Foolish Takeaway
With Goudet building a sizeable stake in Treasury Wine, some investors may see this as the turnaround signal they have been waiting for.
The company still has plenty to fix, especially after a difficult year in its key markets.
But it is a positive sign when a billionaire investor is willing to put more of his own money into an embattled stock.
Still, with Treasury Wine shares down 50% over the past year, there is still a long way back.
The company now needs to show that better sales trends can turn into stronger earnings.
