The Xero Ltd (ASX: XRO) share price has been one of the hardest hit on the ASX within the past year. It's down 57% from 24 June 2025, as the chart below shows.
Xero is one of the largest cloud accounting software businesses in the world, with a sizeable market position in a number of countries including Australia, New Zealand, the UK, South Africa, the USA, Singapore and plenty more.
The ASX tech share has suffered due to market concern about what impact AI could have on software companies. But, some experts believe the Xero share price could be ready to recover significant ground in the months ahead. Let's take a look at the predictions.
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Expert projections about the Xero share price
According to CMC Invest, there are multiple analysts that currently think the ASX tech share is an attractive buy.
Of the analysts that CMC Invest tracks, there have been six buy ratings and one hold rating in the last three months.
The average price target across those seven ratings is $121.78, which implies a possible rise of around 45% in the year ahead.
The most optimistic price target on the Xero share price is $165. If that happened over the next year, it'd be a rise of 97%. However, the most pessimistic price target is $86.80, suggesting a small rise over the next year.
Price targets are not guarantees of what's going to happen, of course.
The main thing that could help justify a higher Xero share price is delivering ongoing earnings growth.
Strong earnings growth
The latest result from the business was the FY26 half-year result.
Subscribers increased by 10% to 4.6 million, showing the ongoing global success of attracting more customers who want its efficiency and time-saving tools. The company also achieved a 15% increase in the average revenue per user (ARPU) to $49.63, which was significantly assisted by price increases.
The above factors helped the business achieve 20% operating revenue growth to NZ$1.19 billion, operating profit (EBITDA) rose 21% to NZ$378 million, net profit after tax (NPAT) jumped 42% to NZ$135 million and free cash flow soared 54% to NZ$321 million.
We can't know for sure what Xero's FY27 profit growth will be, but if it continues growing at a strong double-digit rate, then it will help give investors confidence that it will be unaffected in this AI era.
