Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA) shares have been one of the most popular investments on the ASX for a very long time.
It's not hard to understand why.
CBA is Australia's largest bank, it has a powerful retail banking franchise, a strong digital offering, and a long history of rewarding shareholders with dividends.
For many investors, it is the kind of blue-chip share that sits at the core of a portfolio rather than on the speculative edge.
But after such a strong run, it is fair to ask what a $10,000 investment in CBA shares could become over the next year.
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Why CBA shares remain so popular
CBA has a special place in the Australian share market.
It is widely owned by retail investors, super funds, income investors, and institutions. Part of that comes down to its size and stability. But I think the bigger reason is its track record.
Over long periods, CBA has shown an ability to generate strong profits, pay dividends, and maintain a premium position among the major banks.
It has also invested heavily in its technology and customer experience. I think that has helped it defend its market position at a time when banking has become more competitive.
The bank is still exposed to the usual risks. Mortgage competition, bad debts, funding costs, regulation, and the broader economy all matter.
But CBA has generally been viewed as the highest-quality of the major banks, and the market often prices it accordingly.
The return history
Over the last 10 years, CBA shares have delivered an average total return of 11.45% per annum.
That total return includes both share price growth and dividends, which is important. With a bank like CBA, dividends have historically been a major part of the investment case.
However, I would be careful about assuming the next year will look like the last decade.
A 10-year average can be useful, but it does not predict what happens in any single year. Share prices can move sharply in both directions over 12 months, even for high-quality blue chips.
A more realistic assumption
The broader share market has often been assumed to return around 9% per annum over the long term.
That is not guaranteed either, but I think it is a more balanced number to use when thinking about future returns.
CBA could do better than that. It could also do worse.
Its valuation, interest rates, credit conditions, dividend outlook, and investor sentiment will all influence what happens over the next year.
That is why I would treat the numbers as scenarios rather than forecasts.
What the numbers show
If CBA were to repeat its 10-year average total return of 11.45% over the next year, a $10,000 investment would grow to approximately $11,145.
That would mean a gain of around $1,145, including dividends and capital growth.
If the investment instead returned 9%, which may be a more realistic long-term market-style assumption, $10,000 would grow to approximately $10,900.
That would represent a gain of around $900.
Neither outcome is guaranteed. A weak year for bank shares could leave the investment worth less than $10,000. A strong year could push it well above these figures.
Foolish takeaway
CBA shares are not likely to turn $10,000 into a fortune in a single year.
But for me, the attraction is owning a proven ASX blue chip that has rewarded patient investors over many years through a combination of dividends and capital growth.
The next 12 months could be better or worse than the long-term average, but I think CBA remains a quality share to consider for investors who are focused on building wealth steadily rather than chasing quick gains.
