Qantas Airways Ltd (ASX: QAN) shares have fallen sharply in recent months.
At $8.76 on Thursday, the airline's share price is well below its 52-week high of $12.62. Much of that weakness has been driven by surging oil prices and concerns about travel disruption linked to the Middle East conflict.
But with a peace deal now on the table, there is growing optimism that conditions could improve.
So, if I invested $10,000 into Qantas shares today, how much passive income could I make?
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The numbers
At $8.76 per share, a $10,000 investment would buy approximately 1,141 Qantas shares.
According to CommSec, consensus estimates are for Qantas to pay fully franked dividends of 39.6 cents per share in FY26, 44.8 cents per share in FY27, and 56.2 cents per share in FY28.
Based on those forecasts, a $10,000 investment could generate around $452 in dividends in FY26.
In FY27, the forecast dividend income would rise to approximately $511.
And in FY28, it could increase again to around $642.
That would imply potential forward dividend yields of about 4.5%, 5.1%, and 6.4% based on the current share price.
Of course, these are forecasts, not guarantees. Airlines are cyclical businesses, and dividends can change quickly if conditions deteriorate.
Why the passive income could grow
What makes Qantas shares interesting to me is that the dividend forecasts are not standing still.
The market appears to expect the dividend to grow meaningfully over the next few years. That suggests analysts see scope for stronger cash generation, assuming fuel prices, travel demand, and operational conditions remain supportive.
I think the recent share price fall also changes the equation.
At a higher share price, Qantas may not have looked as appealing from a passive income perspective. But at $8.76, the forecast dividend yield starts to look more attractive, particularly if the business can keep returning cash to shareholders.
More than just dividends
But I would not buy Qantas shares only for passive income.
The bigger opportunity, in my view, is the combination of income and possible capital growth.
If oil prices ease and travel disruption concerns fade, investor sentiment could improve. That could help the share price recover from recent weakness.
Qantas also has a few longer-term strengths. It has a powerful domestic market position, a valuable loyalty business, and a fleet renewal program that could improve efficiency, customer experience, and route flexibility over time.
That does not remove the risks, but it gives the business more to work with than a simple airline story.
Foolish takeaway
Qantas is not a low-risk dividend share, and the payout will depend on earnings, fuel prices, travel demand, and management decisions.
But for investors who can handle some volatility, I think the current weakness could offer a useful mix of income and recovery potential.
