ASX mining shares are underperforming on Tuesday, with the S&P/ASX 300 Metal & Mining Index (ASX: XMM) down 0.7%.
Meanwhile, the benchmark S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) is also lower after the Reserve Bank lifted interest rates again today.
ASX 200 shares are down 0.6%, with materials the weakest of the 11 market sectors today.
While key commodity prices are rising today, investors are worried about the impact of higher fuel prices on miners' earnings.
Image source: Getty Images
US and Iran launch new missile strikes
Fresh fighting between the US and Iran broke out overnight, with missile strikes launched in the Strait of Hormuz.
The new military action sent the Brent crude oil price to US$114 per barrel, its highest level since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022.
At the time of writing, the copper price is US$5.84 per pound, up 0.85%.
Trading Economics analysts said escalating US-Iran tensions are raising concerns about demand for industrial metals like copper.
The analysts said:
A major downside risk for industrial metals is an extended shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz, which could intensify the energy shock and prompt central banks to adopt a more hawkish policy stance, which may dampen manufacturing output and reduce demand for industrial commodities.
On the supply side, copper stocks in warehouses monitored by the LME are still close to their highest levels since 2013, adding to the bearish outlook.
Big picture for copper
The Iran war is a short-term headwind that threatens to disrupt global industrial production due to fuel supply constraints and higher prices.
However, the bigger picture is that a multi-decade green energy transition is underway, and copper's role in electrification will continue to drive longer-term demand, as nations continue to build all the new infrastructure they need for renewable energy generation.
Copper is used in wiring, electric vehicles (EVs), wind turbines, solar energy systems, telecommunications, and electronic products.
The US added copper to its Critical Minerals List in November last year.
The copper price reached a record high of US$6.60 per pound in January. The red metal traded above US$6 per pound again last month.
With this backdrop in mind, here are four ASX copper shares that are buy-rated by the experts.
Sandfire Resources Ltd (ASX: SFR)
The Sandfire Resources share price is $16.61, down 0.8% today and up 65% over 12 months.
Macquarie reiterated its buy rating on the market's largest pure-play ASX copper share last week.
The broker has a 12-month share price target of $19.30, implying 17% upside ahead.
The ASX copper share traded at an all-time high of $21.75 in January.
Develop Global Ltd (ASX: DVP)
The Develop Global share price is $5.31, down 1.7% today and up 66% over 12 months.
Bell Potter reiterated its buy rating on Develop Global shares this week.
The broker said:
Pioneer Dome's importance lies in its ability to provide timely liquidity for the Group, supporting de-leveraging and
financing of Sulphur Springs construction.The resulting financial flexibility would allow DVP to act nimbly on any forthcoming organic and inorganic opportunities.
Bell Potter kept its 12-month share price target at $6.60, suggesting a potential 25% upside ahead.
The ASX copper share traded at a 52-week high of $6.03 in February.
Capstone Copper Corp CDI (ASX: CSC)
The Capstone Copper share price is $11.16, down 3.9% today and up 50% over 12 months.
Morgans is buy-rated on Capstone Copper shares but reduced its price target from $16 to $15.40 last month.
This still implies a potential 38% upside ahead.
The ASX copper share reached a record high of $17.83 in January.
Aeris Resources Ltd (ASX: AIS)
The Aeris Resources share price is 37 cents, down 5.9% today and up 104% over 12 months.
Morgans reiterated its buy rating on Aeris Resources shares this week after reviewing the miner's 3Q FY26 report.
The broker expects the ASX copper share to return to its 52-week high of 70 cents within a year.
This implies a potential capital gain of nearly 90% ahead.
Aeris Resources last traded at 70 cents apiece in January.
Morgans said:
Copper production missed on lower Tritton grades but this was offset by a solid cost performance and strong cash flow (+72% qoq), materially strengthening the balance sheet and funding flexibility.
Tritton is set up for a stronger 4Q26, while Constellation, Golden Plateau and the Peel acquisition underpin a longer-term production and mine life extension story.
Aeris Resources is in the process of acquiring Peel Mining Ltd (ASX: PEX) to access its South Cobar Copper Project.
Peel Mining announced court approvals today, with a shareholder vote scheduled for Monday, 15 June.
