As we enter May of 2026, it's pretty clear that we are in one of the most uncertain investing periods investors have seen in a long time, arguably since the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic in early 2020. We have wars raging around the world, one of the worst oil supply shocks in history still unfolding, and uncomfortably high inflation, here in Australia and internationally.
Despite all of this, markets remain relatively excited.
Over in the United States, the flagship S&P 500 Index is pretty much at its record high, after resetting this record several times in recent weeks.
Things aren't quite so jubilant on the ASX boards. Even so, the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) and the ASX ETFs that track it, remain elevated, and 5.5% below its own record high that we saw earlier in the year.
Investors might find these facts comforting. However, they make me wary. Broadly speaking, I think we can assume the markets are baking in a 'she'll be right' attitude to the current state of the world. If things are indeed as rosy as the market seems to be assuming, we might have a little bit more upside to look forward to. If things aren't so peachy, there's a lot of downside to fear.
Of course, I am no Nostrodamus, and I hope that the market has the correct read of these situations. But I am a 'hope for the best, prepare for the worst' kind of investor.
That's why an investment I'm eyeing off for a 2026 buy is the VanEck Morningstar Wide Moat ETF (ASX: MOAT).
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Why moats matter for this ASX ETF
Why this ASX exchange-traded fund (ETF)? Well, it follows a very specific investing methodology, inspired by the legendary Warren Buffett, that aims to only invest in the most resilient US stocks. This methodology revolves around identifying companies that possess a wide economic 'moat'. This moat, a term first coined by Buffett himself, refers to an inbuilt and durable advantage a company can possess that helps it maintain sales and dominance against threats such as competitors or economic adversity.
This moat can come in several forms. It could be a strong and powerful brand that commands loyalty from consumers. It could be a product or service that customers find difficult to avoid using. Or it could be a cost advantage that enables it to sell products at consistently low prices.
The VanEck Morningstar Wide Moat ETF only holds stocks that display some indications that they possess at least one of these moats. This means, at least in theory, that the companies found in MOAT will be able to weather whatever 2026 throws at the global economy, whether that be high inflation, an oil shock, or other obstacles, better than most. This makes this ASX ETF, in my view at least, the perfect investment for the uncertain world we find ourselves in.
Some examples of the companies that MOAT currently holds include Airbnb, Cadbury-owner Mondelez International, NVIDIA, Nike, Clorox, Walt Disney Co and PepsiCo.
No ASX share, or share-based ETF, can provide absolute protection from volatility or adverse economic events. But I think this ASX ETF has proven itself to be an effective all-weather investment in the past, and will do so again.
