Down 30%, why this ASX 200 stock could be a strong buy

A sharp pullback has changed the starting point. The key question now is whether the growth and scalability story still holds.

| More on:

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More

Hub24 Ltd (ASX: HUB) shares have not escaped the recent weakness across technology and platform stocks.

Its share price is down around 30% from its 52-week high of $122.03, with sentiment hit by broader concerns around artificial intelligence (AI) disruption and elevated valuations across the sector.

But when I look past the short-term noise, I think there is a strong case that this pullback could be an opportunity rather than a warning sign.

Here is how I see it.

Two smiling work colleagues discuss an investment at their office.

Image source: Getty Images

A quality ASX 200 stock caught in a sector sell-off

The recent decline in Hub24's share price appears to be driven more by macro and sector sentiment than company-specific issues.

We have seen a broad de-rating in growth and technology names as investors reassess valuations and try to understand how AI could reshape competitive dynamics.

That is not unusual. Periods of uncertainty often lead to indiscriminate selling, even among high-quality ASX 200 stocks.

Corrections tend to feel worse in the moment, but they are often part of a normal cycle rather than the start of something deeper.

For a company like Hub24, which still operates in a structurally growing industry, that distinction is important.

Structural growth still intact

Hub24 operates a wealth platform that benefits from a long-term shift in how Australians invest.

Advisers and clients continue to move toward platform-based solutions, and funds under administration across the industry have been trending higher over time.

I think that tailwind is far from over. As the platform scales, Hub24 can deepen relationships with advisers, embed itself into workflows, and improve retention. That creates a compounding effect where inflows, scale, and margins can all reinforce each other.

Even if growth moderates from the pace of recent years, the direction of travel still looks favourable.

Operating leverage is the real story

I think one of the more interesting aspects of Hub24 at this stage is how the business evolves as it gets larger.

Platform businesses tend to have relatively high fixed costs. Once those are covered, additional funds flowing onto the platform can come through at higher incremental margins.

That creates the potential for earnings to grow faster than revenue over time.

So while the market may be focused on top-line growth and external risks like AI, I think the more important driver could be internal. If Hub24 continues to scale efficiently, operating leverage could become a key part of the investment case.

What about AI disruption?

The concern around AI is not unreasonable. Technology is changing quickly, and it will likely reshape parts of the financial services industry.

But I think it is worth separating hype from practical impact. Hub24 is not just a simple software product. It is a deeply integrated platform that connects advisers, clients, compliance, reporting, and investment administration.

Those ecosystems tend to be sticky. AI may enhance parts of the value chain over time, but it does not necessarily replace the need for platforms. In many cases, it could improve them.

Valuation reset

A 30% pullback by this ASX 200 stock changes a lot.

At higher prices, expectations can become stretched, and even strong execution may not be enough to justify valuations.

After a correction, the bar is set lower. And if Hub24 continues to deliver steady growth, a lower starting valuation could make future returns more attractive.

Foolish takeaway

Hub24's share price decline reflects a mix of sector rotation, valuation compression, and uncertainty around technology trends.

But the underlying business still appears to have strong structural tailwinds, improving scale, and the potential for meaningful operating leverage over time.

For investors willing to look beyond short-term sentiment, I think this pullback could be a buying opportunity.

Motley Fool contributor Grace Alvino has positions in Hub24. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Hub24. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Hub24. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

More on Technology Shares

Hand with AI in capital letters and AI-related digital icons.
Technology Shares

Which junior ASX AI company has rocketed almost 40% on a transformational deal?

Big things could come from this deal, the company's leaders say.

Read more »

Three small children reach up to hold a toy rocket high above their heads in a green field with a blue sky above them.
Technology Shares

Up 13% today. Here's why this $6.6 billion ASX stock is on the move again

Codan shares rocket as earnings guidance jumps more than 60%

Read more »

a man raises his fists to the air in joyous celebration while learning some exciting good news via his computer screen in an office setting.
Technology Shares

Codan FY26 earnings surge more than 60% on strong communications segment

Codan expects FY26 EBIT and NPAT to surge by more than 60%, powered by strong results in both communications and…

Read more »

Two happy and excited friends in euphoria holding a smartphone, after winning in a bet.
Technology Shares

Why Bell Potter says this ASX defence stock could rocket 100%

Bell Potter thinks this speculative stock could double in value.

Read more »

A man flying a drone using a remote controller.
Technology Shares

Up 133% this year and still climbing: Why this ASX tech stock just hit a record high

This ASX tech stock just hit a record high after an exciting US defence update.

Read more »

A young woman sits with her hand to her chin staring off to the side thinking about her investments.
Technology Shares

Could buying Xero shares at $80 make me rich?

After a major pullback, could this be a turning point for long-term investors? I dig deeper into things in this…

Read more »

Robot hand and human hand touching the same space on a digital screen, symbolising artificial intelligence.
Technology Shares

Up 3000% over a year, what's moving this AI company's shares now?

A capital raise has fired up interest in this stock.

Read more »

Wooden blocks spelling rebound with coins on top.
Broker Notes

Can Life360 shares recover from the AI fuelled sell-off?

A leading expert looks into the AI-driven pressure hitting Life360 shares.

Read more »