Down 30%, why this ASX 200 stock could be a strong buy

A sharp pullback has changed the starting point. The key question now is whether the growth and scalability story still holds.

| More on:

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More

Hub24 Ltd (ASX: HUB) shares have not escaped the recent weakness across technology and platform stocks.

Its share price is down around 30% from its 52-week high of $122.03, with sentiment hit by broader concerns around artificial intelligence (AI) disruption and elevated valuations across the sector.

But when I look past the short-term noise, I think there is a strong case that this pullback could be an opportunity rather than a warning sign.

Here is how I see it.

Two smiling work colleagues discuss an investment at their office.

Image source: Getty Images

A quality ASX 200 stock caught in a sector sell-off

The recent decline in Hub24's share price appears to be driven more by macro and sector sentiment than company-specific issues.

We have seen a broad de-rating in growth and technology names as investors reassess valuations and try to understand how AI could reshape competitive dynamics.

That is not unusual. Periods of uncertainty often lead to indiscriminate selling, even among high-quality ASX 200 stocks.

Corrections tend to feel worse in the moment, but they are often part of a normal cycle rather than the start of something deeper.

For a company like Hub24, which still operates in a structurally growing industry, that distinction is important.

Structural growth still intact

Hub24 operates a wealth platform that benefits from a long-term shift in how Australians invest.

Advisers and clients continue to move toward platform-based solutions, and funds under administration across the industry have been trending higher over time.

I think that tailwind is far from over. As the platform scales, Hub24 can deepen relationships with advisers, embed itself into workflows, and improve retention. That creates a compounding effect where inflows, scale, and margins can all reinforce each other.

Even if growth moderates from the pace of recent years, the direction of travel still looks favourable.

Operating leverage is the real story

I think one of the more interesting aspects of Hub24 at this stage is how the business evolves as it gets larger.

Platform businesses tend to have relatively high fixed costs. Once those are covered, additional funds flowing onto the platform can come through at higher incremental margins.

That creates the potential for earnings to grow faster than revenue over time.

So while the market may be focused on top-line growth and external risks like AI, I think the more important driver could be internal. If Hub24 continues to scale efficiently, operating leverage could become a key part of the investment case.

What about AI disruption?

The concern around AI is not unreasonable. Technology is changing quickly, and it will likely reshape parts of the financial services industry.

But I think it is worth separating hype from practical impact. Hub24 is not just a simple software product. It is a deeply integrated platform that connects advisers, clients, compliance, reporting, and investment administration.

Those ecosystems tend to be sticky. AI may enhance parts of the value chain over time, but it does not necessarily replace the need for platforms. In many cases, it could improve them.

Valuation reset

A 30% pullback by this ASX 200 stock changes a lot.

At higher prices, expectations can become stretched, and even strong execution may not be enough to justify valuations.

After a correction, the bar is set lower. And if Hub24 continues to deliver steady growth, a lower starting valuation could make future returns more attractive.

Foolish takeaway

Hub24's share price decline reflects a mix of sector rotation, valuation compression, and uncertainty around technology trends.

But the underlying business still appears to have strong structural tailwinds, improving scale, and the potential for meaningful operating leverage over time.

For investors willing to look beyond short-term sentiment, I think this pullback could be a buying opportunity.

Motley Fool contributor Grace Alvino has positions in Hub24. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has positions in and has recommended Hub24. The Motley Fool Australia has recommended Hub24. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

More on Technology Shares

A smiling tradie shovels cement into a mixer on a building site
Technology Shares

This ASX technology stock could more than triple in value: Broker

Weakness in these shares could be an opportunity.

Read more »

Woman in celebratory fist move looking at phone.
Share Market News

Life360 shares rebound 4.5% today: Buy, sell or hold?

Here's what the experts expect from Life360 shares over the next 12 months.

Read more »

Three women laughing and enjoying their gambling winnings while sitting at a poker machine.
Technology Shares

Aristocrat shares charge higher on strong result and $1b buy-back

This gaming technology company has delivered strong profit growth during the first half.

Read more »

Piggybank with an army helmet and a drone next to it, symbolising a rising DroneShield share price.
Industrials Shares

3 ASX stocks positioned to benefit from rising global defence budgets

As global defence budgets rise, the Australian defence sector stands to benefit. Find out which stocks are best positioned.

Read more »

Human head and artificial intelligence head side by side.
Technology Shares

After a 50% surge, could this ASX tech stock still double?

Brokers remain bullish, with up to 140% upside potential.

Read more »

A man pulls a shocked expression with mouth wide open as he holds up his laptop.
Share Market News

What on earth's going on with WiseTech shares?

The tech stock could rebound hard as global trade stabilises.

Read more »

A man sitting at his desktop computer leans forward onto his elbows and yawns while he rubs his eyes as though he is very tired.
Technology Shares

DroneShield shares crash 16% on ASIC investigation

Let's see what this counter-drone technology company has announced.

Read more »

A man holds his head in his hands after seeing bad news on his laptop screen.
Technology Shares

Why are Life360 shares sinking 8% today?

This tech stock has started the financial year strongly. Here's what it reported.

Read more »