Coles Group Ltd (ASX: COL) shares are marching higher today.
Shares in the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) supermarket giant closed on Friday trading for $22.54. As we head into the Monday lunch hour, shares are changing hands for $22.85 apiece, up 1.4%.
For some context, the ASX 200 is just about flat at this same time.
Taking a step back, Coles shares have underperformed the benchmark index over the past full year, gaining 6.2% compared to the 14.5% 12-month gains posted by the ASX 200.
Of course, that's not including the two fully franked dividends the supermarket paid out to eligible stockholders over this time. Coles stock currently trades on a 3.2% fully franked dividend yield.
Which brings us back to our headline question…
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Should you buy Coles shares today?
Catapult Wealth's Dylan Evans recently analysed the outlook for the ASX 200 supermarket (courtesy of The Bull).
Citing the first reason he has a buy rating on Coles shares, he said, "The supermarket giant posted a solid first half result in fiscal year 2026, maintaining margins and delivering earnings before interest and tax growth of 10.2%."
Among the tailwinds to its earnings, Evans noted, "The liquor business struggled, but it only makes up a small percentage of group revenue, so its overall impact is limited."
As for the second reason you may want to buy Coles shares today, Evans said, "Coles has continued to grow its share of own-brand sales, leverage its quality locations into home delivery and online sales growth and expand locations to capture population growth."
And with the Iran war showing signs that it may drag on far longer than we'd like, he noted that Coles is well-placed to weather the potential negative impacts of higher energy prices.
Evans concluded:
The Middle East conflict and its inflationary impacts may be a short-term disruption, but an inflationary environment is somewhat cushioned for supermarkets, particularly compared to more discretionary sectors.
What's the latest from the ASX 200 supermarket?
The last price sensitive news out from Coles was the company's half year (H1 FY 2026) results, released on 27 February.
Atop the earnings growth Evans mentioned above, Coles reported a 2.5% year on year increase in sales revenue to $23.6 billion.
The company's online business was a standout performer, with its supermarket's eCommerce segment achieving sales growth of 27.0%.
On the bottom line, net profit after tax (excluding significant items) of $676 million was up 12.5% from H1 FY 2025.
Amid high investor expectations, Coles shares closed down 7.4% on the day of the results release.
