Why this ASX 200 gold stock could be a strong buy

This gold miner is highly rated by analysts at Bell Potter. Let's find out why.

| More on:

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More

There are a lot of gold miners to choose from on the Australian share market.

To narrow things down, let's take a look at one ASX 200 gold stock that Bell Potter is bullish on.

A man holding a cup of coffee puts his thumb up and smiles with a laptop open.

Image source: Getty Images

Which ASX 200 gold stock?

The gold miner that Bell Potter is tipping as a buy is Evolution Mining Ltd (ASX: EVN).

It notes that the company released its quarterly update this week. While it wasn't blown away with the update, the broker remains positive given its strong cash flow generation. Commenting on the quarter, Bell Potter said:

EVN has reported a weaker March quarter 2026 result, in-line with management commentary and previously disclosed operational disruptions at Ernest Henry (flooding) and Cowal (bi-annual mill shutdown). Group production was 170.1koz gold and 10.8kt copper (vs BPe 171.0koz gold and 16.6kt copper).

While the March quarter suffered from operational and weather disruptions resulting in lower production and higher costs QoQ, this had been flagged to the market. That EVN still generated near-record free cash flow under these circumstances helped a strong positive reaction. We also believe consistent commentary on maintaining capital discipline, investing in high-returning organic growth projects and an aversion to hoarding cash has been well received by the market. We forecast EVN to declare fully-franked dividends of 50cps in FY26, up from 20cps in FY25.

Time to buy?

According to the note, the broker has retained its buy rating on the ASX 200 gold stock with a slightly trimmed price target of $16.45 (from $16.60).

Based on its current share price of $14.45, this implies potential upside of 14% for investors over the next 12 months.

In addition, Bell Potter is forecasting an attractive 3.5% dividend yield over the period. This boosts the total potential return to over 17%.

Commenting on its buy recommendation, Bell Potter said:

EPS changes on this update are -6% for FY26, FY27 and FY28 are unchanged. Changes to our operational assumptions are minor. EVN offers effectively unhedged gold and copper exposure via a portfolio of high quality, long-life assets in Tier 1 jurisdictions, overseen by a high-quality management team. EVN has stated its intention to pass growing free cash flows on to shareholders. Our NPV-based Target Price drops 1% to $16.45/sh and we retain our Buy recommendation.

Motley Fool contributor James Mickleboro has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

More on Gold

A few gold nullets sit on an old-fashioned gold scale, representing ASX gold shares.
Gold

Guess which ASX 200 gold stock just achieved all-time high full year gold production

The ASX gold stock reported record gold production and forecasts another big year ahead.

Read more »

Two miners examine things they have taken out the ground.
Gold

Up 52% in a year, ASX 300 gold stock unveils half-million-ounce resource boost

The ASX gold miner just lifted its resource estimate by half a million ounces.

Read more »

Delighted adult man, working on a company slogan, on his laptop.
Gold

Bellevue Gold reports record production and FY27 guidance upgrade

The gold miner expects production of 150,000–170,000 ounces in FY 2027.

Read more »

Man pointing at a blue rising share price graph.
Broker Notes

Why this promising ASX All Ords gold stock is forecast to more than triple your money

A leading broker tips some major upside for this growing ASX gold miner.

Read more »

two businessmen shake hands amid a backdrop of tall buildings, indicating a share price movement or merger between ASX property companies
Gold

Northern Star shares are rising. Is activist investor about to unlock value?

More changes could be coming as Elliott turns up the pressure.

Read more »

Miner looks excited as he holds a nugget of gold he has discovered.
Gold

Guess which ASX 200 gold stock is leaping 15% on Monday on big growth news

Investors are sending this ASX 200 gold miner to the moon on Monday. But why?

Read more »

Two hands being shaken symbolising a deal.
Mergers & Acquisitions

Evolution Mining shares surging today on $213 million acquisition news

Evolution Mining’s $213 million takeover offer just sent shares in this junior ASX mining stock rocketing 63%!

Read more »

Man putting golden coins on a board, representing multiple streams of income.
Gold

3 ASX gold companies UBS says will return between 25% and 60%

Recent good news has UBS bullish on these companies.

Read more »