ASX 200 mining shares just experienced one of the most volatile quarters we have seen in years.
After a 32% surge in CY25, the S&P/ASX 200 Materials Index (ASX: XMJ) managed just a 1.1% gain over the first quarter of CY26.
Let's recap.
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What happened in the first quarter?
The miners had momentum in January as commodity prices skyrocketed on new year optimism following an extraordinary run in CY25.
The gold price ripped from just over US$4,300 per ounce on 31 December to a new record of US$5,608 on 29 January.
Then came the sell-off, with commodities plummeting over just a few days. The gold price fell 21% to US$4,400 per ounce by 2 February.
The sell-off was triggered by US President Donald Trump nominating the more hawkish contender, Kevin Warsh, to be the next Fed chair.
Investors feared tighter US monetary policy, which would be a headwind for metals prices, so they sold their mining shares to preserve profits.
For the month of January, the ASX 200 materials sector rose 9.5%.
In February, metals prices rebounded as the 5 key drivers of a new commodities supercycle continued to drive demand.
The materials sector lifted a further 9% over the month.
Then came the war.
On 28 February (US time), Israel and the US launched missile strikes on Iran on the basis of eliminating its ability to build nuclear weapons.
This injected fear into markets, with the ensuing oil shock driving oil and gas prices substantially higher.
That's no good for the mining sector, which now faces higher energy costs and potentially constrained supply, which may limit production.
This led to a dramatic dive for ASX 200 mining shares this month.
At the time of writing, the materials sector is down 15.3% over March, with almost all of the gains over January and February wiped out.
What's next for ASX 200 mining shares?
We saw signs of a fightback last week, with ASX 200 materials the fastest rising market sector with a 4.6% gain.
Investors may be buying the dip on ASX 200 mining shares on hopes that negotiations between the US and Iran will end this war soon.
The long-term outlook for mining shares is bright, with Australia in the early stages of a new mining boom driven primarily by the green energy transition, and increasingly, a desire among western nations for greater sovereign manufacturing capability and energy security.
Experts say a new metals supercycle is underway, with the primary beneficiaries being copper, uranium, lithium, rare earths, and silver.
How BHP shares fared in 1Q FY26
The BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) share price has lifted 9.8% in the first quarter to $49.93 at the time of writing.
The following chart demonstrates the rollercoaster ride over 1Q CY26 for the market's largest ASX 200 mining share.
BHP shares reached a record $59.39 on 3 March before plummeting as the war in Iran prompted investors to take profits.
Rio Tinto Ltd (ASX: RIO) shares lifted 8.8% over 1Q FY26 to $159.69 today, while Fortescue Ltd (ASX: FMG) fell 8.2% to $20.21 today.
The Mineral Resources Ltd (ASX: MIN) share price rose fell 1.6% to $53.55 today.
The South32 Ltd (ASX: S32) share price rocketed 19.2% over 1Q CY26 to $4.25 today.
