Owning Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA) shares could be a good decision for investors wanting to own a stable ASX bank share capable of delivering a rising dividend.
CBA has long been viewed as an expensive bank, but even the detractors of the bank would have to admit that the bank's performance this decade has been more consistent than its major competitors of National Australia Bank Ltd (ASX: NAB), ANZ Group Holdings Ltd (ASX: ANZ) and Westpac Banking Corp (ASX: WBC).
Time will tell exactly what CBA's profit and dividends will do over the next few years, but leading analysts have estimated what could happen with regards to its passive income.
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FY26
We're three-quarters of the way through the 2026 financial year, so there's not much longer to go until we learn what the FY26 annual dividend will be.
The business recently reported its FY26 half-year result which included a number of positives.
Firstly, the interim dividend per share increased by 4% to $2.35 per share.
This dividend growth was funded by the ASX bank share's net profit, which increased by 5% to $5.4 billion, and the cash net profit rose 6% to $5.4 billion.
CBA attributed the profit growth to lending and deposit volume growth in its core businesses. This was partially offset by a lower net interest margin (NIM) and higher operating expenses (which was primarily due to inflation and its continued investment in technology).
Australia's biggest bank said that competition continues to be a headwind for the NIM.
The ASX bank share's pre-provision (for bad debts) profit grew 5% year-over-year to $8.1 billion, while the loan impairment was flat year over year (but down 21% compared to the second half of FY25).
Of course, all of these figures happened for the six months to 31 December 2025. That means the Middle East conflict didn't impact the numbers.
Analyst estimates could change in the coming weeks based on what happens in the Middle East, but currently the projection on CMC Invest suggests a FY26 annual dividend of $5.05 per CBA share.
That translates into a grossed-up dividend yield of 4.1%, including franking credits, at the time of writing.
FY27
If the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) does continue raising the Australian cash rate to try to tackle inflation, there could be a couple of major factors that play out for CBA.
It could lead to a higher NIM because CBA can earn more margin on lending out money on CBA account balances that pay low/zero interest (like transaction accounts). It may also mean that loan arrears and bad debts increase if some borrowers struggle with the higher interest rate.
The current estimate on CMC Invest suggests the payout will be $5.25 per CBA share, a rise of 4% year-over-year.
FY28
The last year of this series of projections could see another increase of the dividend for owners of CBA shares.
The forecast on CMC Invest suggests that the ASX bank share's annual dividend could increase to $5.40 per share. That would be a year-over-year rise of 2.9%.
If the business does pay that amount, it would mean a grossed-up dividend yield of 4.4%, including franking credits.
