The All Ordinaries Index (ASX: XAO) is highly unlikely to rocket 112% over the next year, but this ASX mining share is forecast to do just that, according to the investment team at Moelis Australia.
The potentially money-doubling stock in question is Carnaby Resources Ltd (ASX: CNB). And that estimate comes atop today's outsized gains.
Indeed, Carnaby Resources shares are on fire today.
The ASX mining share closed yesterday trading for 36.5 cents. In early afternoon trade on Wednesday, shares are changing hands for 42.5 cents apiece, up 16.4%.
We'll look at why Moelis expects that today's gains are just the tip of the iceberg below.
But first…
Image source: Getty Images
Why is the ASX mining share rocketing today?
Carnaby Resources is primarily focused on its Greater Duchess Copper Gold Project, located in Queensland.
Investors are piling into the ASX mining share today after the company announced new high-grade exploration drill results at Greater Duchess.
Carnaby reported top results from one drill hole of 8.1 metres at 9.9% copper equivalent, including 4.3 metres at 16.5% CuEq from 475 metres.
"These results are important as they demonstrate the excellent down plunge continuity of the extremely high-grade breccia shoot mineralisation over at least 600 metres below the Ore Reserve Open pit," Carnaby Resource managing director Rob Watkins said.
"The Trek 1 extension is shaping up as a very significant high-grade discovery which will be adding valuable mineral inventory to the Greater Duchess Project Mineral Resources," he added.
Which brings us to…
Why Moelis is bullish on Carnaby Resources shares
Prior to today's announcement, Moelis reiterated its buy rating on the ASX mining share.
According to the broker:
The defining feature of CNB in our view remains the low-capital pathway to the commencement of production. The planned development pathway will not require the construction of a concentrator, given the company's toll treatment agreement with Glencore at the nearby Mt Isa concentrator and accompanying offtake.
From an economic perspective, this may not be the most value additive approach if CNB were capital unconstrained, however, in this market, we think investors will be more interested in avoiding risk than academic arguments around the value of fixed infrastructure if CNB were to build a new facility.
Moelis also highlighted the production potential of Greater Duchess, as revealed by Carnaby Resources' updated pre-feasibility study (PFS) and maiden Ore Reserve estimates.
The broker noted that headline elements include:
- 12-year production profile, producing ~15kt Cu Eq on average per annum
- MA Est. pre-production capex A$15m, pre-tax NPV (13%) at spot prices: A$650m. MA Est. expected IRR ~130%
- Feasibility study on track for completion June Q (2026) with FID expected within the current half. First production slated for 2H CY26
- Maiden Ore Reserve of 8.4mt grading 1.7% Cu & 0.3g/t Au for 164kt Cu Eq
Connecting the dots, Moelis has a 12-month price target of 90 cents per share on Carnaby Resources.
That represents a potential 111.8% upside from this ASX mining share.
