Up 19% in 7 weeks, are CBA shares a good buy today?

A leading investment expert delivers his outlook on CBA's surging shares.

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Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA) shares are off to the races today.

Shares in the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) bank stock closed yesterday trading for $169.45. During the Tuesday lunch hour, shares are changing hands for $173.00 apiece, up 2.1%.

For some context, the ASX 200 is up 1.4% at this same time.

Shares in Australia's biggest bank stock have been strongly outperforming since slumping to nine-month lows of $147.22 on 21 January.

How strongly?

Well, investors who bought at market close on 21 January will have booked gains of 17.5% at current levels.

And that's not including the fully franked $2.35 interim dividend they'll receive on 30 March. (CBA traded ex-dividend on 18 February.)

If we add that back into the current share price, then the accumulated value of CBA shares has soared 19.1% in just seven weeks.

Which brings us back to our headline question.

View from below of a banker jumping for joy in the CBD surrounded by high-rise office buildings.

Image source: Getty Images

Should you still buy CBA shares today?

Red Leaf Securities' John Athanasiou recently ran his slide rule over the big four bank stock (courtesy of The Bull).

"CBA remains the highest quality bank, supported by scale, technology leadership and a dominant retail franchise," he said.

"Credit quality is stable, arrears are contained and capital levels are strong. Recent half year results in fiscal year 2026 beat expectations, which the market welcomed," Athanasiou added.

But Athanasiou isn't ready to pull the trigger on CBA shares at current levels, with a hold recommendation on the stock.

He noted:

However, much of this quality is already reflected in its premium valuation. With loan growth moderating and net interest margins normalising, earnings growth is likely to be steady as opposed to spectacular.

CBA trades on a price to earnings (P/E) ratio of around 28 times, the highest of the ASX 200 bank stocks.

On the passive income front, Athanasiou said, "The dividend supports total returns, making it a reliable core holding."

CBA trades on a fully franked trailing dividend yield of 2.9%.

As for his hold recommendation, Athanasiou concluded, "Upside is limited at current prices. However, existing investors should maintain exposure, while new capital may find better growth or valuation opportunities elsewhere."

What's the latest from the big four bank?

CBA reported its half year results on 11 February.

Highlights included an expectation-beating cash net profit after tax (NPAT) of $5.45 billion. That was up 6% on CBA's H1 FY 2025 cash NPAT.

CBA shares closed up 6.8% on the day of the results release.

Motley Fool contributor Bernd Struben has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

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