S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) copper stock Sandfire Resources Ltd (ASX: SFR) is giving back some of its recent outsized gains this week.
Following on the United States and Israel's strikes on Iran, and Iran's ensuing retaliation in the Middle East, global copper prices have fallen 3.4% this week. The red metal is currently trading for US$12,902 per tonne.
Sandfire shares have fared even worse. Down a sharp 7.1% during the Friday lunch hour, trading for $17.56, the Sandfire share price has dropped 13.1% since last Friday's close.
Still, with the copper price remaining up 48% since 9 April, and Sandfire achieving plenty of success on and under the ground, shares in the ASX 200 copper stock are 115.8% since market close on 9 April.
Which brings us back to our headline question.
Image source: Getty Images
Should you buy the ASX 200 copper stock today?
Fairmont Equities' Michael Gable ran his slide rule over Sandfire shares late last week, before the onset of the Middle East conflict.
"SFR is Australia's largest listed pure play copper producer," Gable said (quoted by The Bull). "I expect copper prices to climb in calendar year 2026 in response to increasing global demand."
And Gable was impressed with the ASX 200 copper stock's H1 FY 2026 earnings results. He noted:
The company's recent half year result for fiscal year 2026 delivered underlying earnings of US$107 million, which was above consensus. Analysts have been lifting their price targets, painting a brighter outlook.
But, citing the meteoric share price rise since, April Gable placed a hold recommendation on Sandfire shares.
"The share price has risen from $8.15 on April 9, 2025 to trade at $20.475 on February 26, 2026. At these levels, a hold recommendation is appropriate," he said.
Following on this week's selling pressure, the Sandfire share price is now down 14.2% since the 26 February level that Gable notes.
What's the latest from Sandfire Resources?
Sandfire reported its half year results on 19 February.
Atop the earnings beat Gable mentioned above, the ASX 200 copper stock achieved a 17% year on year increase in sales revenue to US$672.1 million.
And on the bottom line, Sandfire's net profit after tax (NPAT) of US$96.3 million was up 94% from H1 FY 2025.
As for what's ahead, Sandfire CEO Brendan Harris said:
Our business is increasingly well positioned with two high-margin operations in Spain and Botswana, producing the commodities the world needs, and the recent addition of another copper and gold development opportunity in South Australia that has the potential to underpin a large scale, long life and low-cost operation in a preferred jurisdiction.
