Qantas Airways Ltd (ASX: QAN) shares closed in the red again on Tuesday afternoon. Throughout the day the shares tumbled 1.81% to $9.24 a piece.
The downturn means the airline stock has tumbled 13.24% over the past week and is now down 11.92% for the year-to-date. The stock is also 7.51% lower than this time last year.
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What happened to Qantas shares?
Qantas shares tumbled 9.2% on Wednesday last week after the airline posted its first-half results for FY26.
The company revealed a 6.3% increase in revenue, and a 5.1% hike in underlying profit before tax, which was around 2% ahead of market estimates. It also announced a net debt of $5.6 billion which was in line with its target range.
The flying kangaroo's strong results meant the board was able to declare a fully franked interim base dividend of 19.8 cents per share, up 20%. The company also confirmed that it intends to undertake an on-market share buyback of up to $150 million.
But it looks like the results came in short of investor expectations and the share price suffered.
The airline's share price has tumbled even further this week as uncertainty around fuel prices heats up. Oil has surged as the US and Israeli war against Iran continues. Trading Economics data shows that WTI crude futures rose more than 2% toward $73 per barrel on Tuesday after rallying roughly 6% in the prior session
How long will the downturn last?
It's not clear how long the share price will decline. Airlines are closely monitoring fuel prices, and, at the AFR Business Summit on Tuesday, Qantas CEO Vanessa Hudson said that the airline has "pretty good" fuel hedging in place.
"We've got pretty good hedging in place, but these are pretty significant impacts on aviation and we're just continuing to watch how it all unfolds," she said at the event.
Is there any upside ahead? Or has the share price already peaked?
Analysts are still very bullish on the outlook for Qantas shares. Once the current geopolitical uncertainty cools, the airline's stock could well fly much higher.
TradingView data shows that 11 out of 15 analysts still have a buy or strong buy rating on Qantas shares. The average target price is $12.36 a piece, which implies a potential 33.8% upside at the time of writing. But some think it could climb even higher, by 45.36% to $13.43.
