The Fortescue Ltd (ASX: FMG) share price has risen by around 10% in the last six months. The ASX mining share also just reported its FY26 half-year result.
After seeing the numbers, it's a good time to consider what could happen with the Fortescue share price, and whether the business is a buy or not.
Fortescue reported that revenue rose 10% to US$8.4 billion, underlying operating profit (EBITDA) grew 23% to US$4.5 billion, net profit rose 23% to US$1.91 billion, net operating cash flow increased 32% to US$3.2 billion and the dividend was hiked by 24% to 62 cents per share.
The ASX mining share benefited from a 7% rise in its sold price and production costs declined 3%.
Let's see what experts think of the Fortescue share price.
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Analysis and views of the FY26 half-year result
Broker UBS said that the interim dividend was stronger than the market was expecting with a "sector-leading" 65% dividend payout ratio.
Underlying EBITDA was around 5% stronger than expected thanks to a strengthening of the market to 53%, though earnings was a "slight miss" compared to market expectations reflecting higher depreciation and amortisation (D&A) on Fortescue's growing asset base.
UBS also highlighted that the company's roll out of batteries, solar and wind is accelerating. The cost of those installs is improving sequentially, with "strong relationships" with manufacturers. The broker said it's "confident" in Fortescue's approach to decarbonisation spending.
Taking diesel and gas costs of C1 production costs were estimated at US$2 to US$4 per tonne by 2030, which could be a positive for the Fortescue share price.
UBS thoughts on the outlook
The broker is forecasting that the iron ore price could be US$96 per tonne in the 2026 calendar year and US$90 per tonne in 2027 as large African iron ore project Simandou ramps up.
UBS also highlighted that CMRG (a large Chinese buyer of iron ore) negotiations "continue to pose a challenge for the sector" and may affect sales. But, Fortescue has to date "encountered less scrutiny than peers".
Fortescue's potential green energy projects are waiting for "more favourable return signals". Additionally, UBS noted that Fortescue is giving itself optionality by looking at copper projects, including the recent Alta Copper acquisition.
Is the Fortescue share price a buy?
UBS is now forecasting that Fortescue could generate US$3.8 billion of net profit in FY26 and pay an annual dividend per share of A$1.22.
The broker has a price target of $20 on Fortescue, implying a mid-single-digit decline of the Fortescue share price, in percentage terms, over the next year. This appears to not be the best time to invest in Fortescue, even though it may provide a large dividend yield of 8.2%, including franking credits.
