BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) shares have experienced a fair amount of ups and downs over the years.
While the mining giant has been a very solid performer, its share price is cyclical, and heavily influenced by swings in commodity prices.
Five years ago, back in April 2021, BHP shares were trading at $42.35 a piece. That means that a $5,000 investment would have bought you 118 shares in the mining giant.
At the time of writing, BHP shares are changing hands at $55.95. That's a 32% increase from five years ago.
It also means that the same $5,000 investment right now will buy you just 89 BHP shares.
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What's the latest out of BHP?
The ASX 200 mining giant posted its operational review, covering the nine months to 31st of March, earlier this week.
The miner reported a 2% year-on-year increase in iron ore production for the nine months to 197 million tonnes. This was supported by record production at the miner's integrated Western Australia Iron Ore (WAIO) systems.
But copper production went the other direction, slipping 3% from the same period in FY 2025 to 1.461 million tonnes.
As part of the update, BHP also confirmed that CEO Mike Henry is stepping down from his role after six and a half years. He will be replaced by Brandon Craig, current president Americas, on the 1st of July.
Can BHP shares climb higher?
TradingView data shows analysts are pretty divided about the outlook for BHP shares over the next 12 months.
Potentially the miner's share price could be entering the next stage of the cycle after a strong annual rally.
Out of 20 analysts, 11 have a hold rating on the shares. Another seven have a buy or strong buy rating and two rate the miner as a sell.
The average target price of $54.06 implies a potential 4% downside at the time of writing.
Is there any other reason to invest in the stock?
As I mentioned earlier, BHP's share price is cyclical heavily tied to the commodities market.
While cyclical stocks are closely tied to the broader economic cycle, they often outperform during periods of economic recovery.
It's also worth noting that the long-term outlook for ASX mining shares is positive right now, with some stating that Australia is in the early stages of a new mining boom.
This boom is expected to be driven mostly by a transition to green energy. This could support long-term demand for metals like copper. Copper is essential for green energy, acting as a key conductor in renewable technologies, electric vehicles (EVs), and power grids.
On the other hand, iron ore prices are expected to trend lower in 2026 thanks to a supply surge from Africa and Brazil and combined with slowing Chinese demand.
BHP is heavily exposed to both of these markets.
Not only could sentiment quickly shift for BHP, it also has the added drawcard of paying its shareholders attractive and reliable dividend payments.
BHP is a reliable, high-yield dividend stock that often yields around 4% to 6%, fully franked. It has a long history of regular dividend payments dating back to 2006.
As a major diversified miner, it maintains dividend payouts even when commodity prices fluctuate thanks to its low-cost operations.
