The Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA) share price has gone up 11% in 2026 to date, as shown on the chart below, which is a solid return. Experts have given their view on what could happen over the next year.
The capital gains we've seen this year all came after the ASX bank share reported its FY26 first-half report.
Let's take a look at what investors saw in the HY26 result before getting to expert views on the CBA share price.
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FY26 half-year result recap
The bank reported that its net interest margin (NIM) – lending profitability in percentage terms – was flat year over year on an underlying basis at 2.04%, with competition in home lending. But there was strong growth in at-call deposits.
CBA also said that its loan impairment expense (credit quality) was flat year over year at $319 million, but down 21% from the second half of FY25.
The bank reported that its operating expenses increased by 5% to $6.7 million due to inflation, increased technology investment, and additional lenders and operational resources. Investment spending rose 10% to $1.2 billion, with the investment in its technology to modernise its infrastructure.
CBA said that its lending volume growth was "disciplined". Home lending in Australia grew at the same pace as the overall lending system, while Australian deposits grew 1.1x faster than the overall banking system. Pleasingly, New Zealand lending grew at 1.3x the system rate, and Australian business lending grew by 1.3x the system rate.
CBA said that pre-provision profit increased 5% year over year to $8.1 billion, cash net profit grew 6% to $5.4 billion, and statutory net profit increased by 5% to $5.4 billion. The dividend was hiked by 4% to $2.35 per share. These metrics are key to driving the CBA share price higher.
While those numbers don't suggest huge growth, they were enough to excite the market, given how big the ASX bank share already is and how much profit growth was expected.
Let's see where analysts think the ASX bank share can go from here.
Expert views on the CBA share price
According to CMC Invest, there have been 10 recent ratings on Commonwealth Bank in the last three months. Of those 10, all are sell ratings.
The average price target of those 10 ratings is $127.22, implying a possible drop of close to 30% in the next year. The most optimistic price target suggests a possible decline of around 20% in the next 12 months, while the most pessimistic price target suggests it could fall 50%.
I personally don't think we're going to see the CBA share price crash by 50% this year (unless the entire market plummets, which is also unlikely). However, analyst views suggest the CBA share price is overvalued relative to the profit it's generating, compared to its peers.
If the bank continues to grow its loan book and maintains its profit margins, it could still do well over the long term. But I believe there are more attractive ideas out there, either for growth or dividend income.
