Critical minerals shares were in focus for much of the latter part of last year, as the US sought to put in place strategies to bolster home-grown supply and diversify away from China, which has a strong hold on much of the supply chain for these minerals.
According to the analysts at Macquarie, this interest has jumped again early this calendar year, with the US launching the US$12 billion Vault Project, which is in addition to the US National Defense Stockpile (NDS).
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Stockpiles will drive demand
Just how the Vault Project will work and even which minerals will be stockpiled are unclear at this stage, but it is undoubtedly a positive for critical minerals companies, Macquarie said in a recent research note sent to clients.
Macquarie said the project was "aggressive", and while details were thin on the ground, it would undoubtedly be a positive for critical minerals suppliers.
They added:
Currently, there is no clear guidance on either the scale or composition of minerals to be stockpiled under the Vault Project. However, if we assume an NdPr (neodymium-praseodymium)stockpile cap similar to the US$2bn NDS and adjust for the larger funding envelope, the implied NdPr oxide inventory for the Vault Project would be about 2.6kt, or about 2% of projected global demand in CY26. We note that the internal budget may ultimately target a significantly larger volume, given NdPr's widespread use across civilian and industrial applications.
Macquarie said the critical minerals strategy would be built on four pillars: direct investment; strategic stockpiling; market protection; and rebuilding the mining ecosystem.
Two ASX-listed companies which could stand to benefit, the Macquarie team said, were Lynas Rare Earths Ltd (ASX: LYC) and Iluka Resources Ltd (ASX: ILU).
In the case of Iluka, Macquarie has a price target of $6.50 on the company's shares, compared with $5.35 currently.
Iluka reported its first-half results on Wednesday, saying mineral sands revenue had fallen from $1.13 billion to $976 million over the full year.
The company also dropped its full-year dividend from 4 cents to 3 cents, on a $288 million net loss, down from a $231 million full-year profit. The loss included $565 million in impairment charges announced to the market in January.
The company, in its statement to the ASX, mirrored Macquarie's sentiment that it was well-placed to take advantage of demand as the rare earths market developed.
The company said:
Rare earths dominated headlines globally in 2025 and were recognised as a clear priority by investors, consumers and policymakers alike. We saw the risk of supply disruptions shift from the theoretical to the concrete, reinforcing the value and strategic importance of the new business Iluka has been building since 2022, with the Eneabba refinery to be commissioned next year.
Iluka said an example of the market evolving was the US government introducing a price floor for light magnet rare earths.
It went on to say:
The acceleration of these developments underscores the advantage of Eneabba coming online in 2027; the products it will deliver (light and heavy rare earths oxides); how those products will be priced; and the wide range of feedstocks the facility has access to and will be capable of processing.
Meanwhile, Macquarie's price target on Lynas was $17.50 per share compared with $15.44 currently. Lynas will report its results on February 26.
