Northern Star Resources Ltd (ASX: NST) shares have surged over the past year.
During this time, the gold miner's shares have risen more than 50% in response to a booming gold price.
Is it too late to invest? Here's what Bell Potter is saying following the company's first-half result.
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What is the broker saying?
Bell Potter was relatively pleased with Northern Star's half-year results given the operational disruptions it experienced during the period. The broker said:
Highlights: Revenue A$3,414m (BPe A$3,417m, VA A$3,383m), EBITDA A$1,876m (BPe A$1,894m, VA A$1,890m), NPAT A$760m (BPe A$848m, VA A$779m) and EPS A$50cps (BPe A$59cps, VA A$54cps). The result was largely inline, except for a larger than anticipated impairment on exploration assets of A$77.6m (A$24.7m PcP).
Despite the production downgrade in Jan-26 following disruptions across South Kalgoorlie and Jundee, lower mined grades from the Orelia OP (Thunderbox) and a primary crusher failure at KCGM, financial performance remained resilient, with EBITDA margins expanding across both Kalgoorlie and Pogo production centres. NST finished the half with A$293m in net cash.
Hemi delays
One of the key developments from the result was a potential delay to the Hemi project, which it gained with the acquisition of De Grey Mining. Bell Potter explains:
The key development from the announcement was the potential delay for the Hemi project. We had forecasted production commencement in Mar-29, however NST now anticipates this to occur around the beginning of FY30. A short delay, which was likely to be expected.
The broker also notes that meeting full-year production guidance in FY 2026 will require a stronger second half. It adds:
We still need to see a material grade lift across the portfolio to hit guidance (FY26 1,600-1,700koz), which is going to come from Golden Pike North (KCGM/ Kalgoorlie), and a normalization of operations at Yandal.
Should you buy Northern Star shares?
Despite the operational hurdles and the Hemi timing slip, Bell Potter remains positive on this ASX gold stock.
According to the note, the broker has retained its buy rating on Northern Star shares with an improved price target of $35.00.
Based on its current share price of $28.37, this implies potential upside of 23% for investors over the next 12 months.
Commenting on its buy recommendation, Bell Potter said:
Our Target Price lifts to $35.00/sh, and we maintain our Buy recommendation. The 1HFY26 result was already flagged as being impacted by the disruptions outlined above. The question is; how quickly the business can rectify remaining disruptions, in a timely manner to meet the downgraded guidance. We forecast the cashflow inflection point in FY28, with the potential for capital returns/ buybacks should KCGM reach capacity ahead of cash outlays for Hemi.
