BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) shares are slipping today.
Shares in the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) mining giant closed on Friday trading for $51.13. In morning trade on Monday, shares are changing hands for $50.42, down 1.2%.
For some context, the ASX 200 is up 0.2% at this same time.
Taking a step back, BHP shares have been strong performers over the past full year, gaining 23.6%. And that's not including the two fully-franked BHP dividends, totalling $1.71 a share, that eligible stockholders will have received over this period.
As for how much the next interim BHP dividend will be, investors will learn that tomorrow when the miner reports its half-year results (H1 FY 2026).
Which brings us back to our headline question.
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Should you buy BHP shares today?
BHP's ongoing stoush with China over the mechanisms to price its iron ore imports may weigh on investor sentiment when the ASX 200 mining stock reports its results tomorrow.
However, I don't expect that the reported decline in BHP's Jimblebar Fines iron ore exports to the Middle Kingdom will have a material impact on its H1 FY 2026 revenue or profits. Though it may be a different story for the second half of the financial year.
As for the first half, I expect that a resilient iron ore price over the six-month period (iron ore counts as the miner's top revenue earner) and surging copper prices (the miner's number two revenue earner) should help support BHP shares on the heels of tomorrow's results.
At its second quarter (Q2 FY 2026) results, the miner reported a 5% year-on-year increase in quarterly iron ore production to 69.7 million tonnes. And the price it received for the industrial metal was up 4%.
Quarterly copper production of 490,500 tonnes (kt) was down 4% year on year. However, BHP lifted its full-year FY 2026 copper production guidance to 1,900–2,000 kt (from the prior 1,800–2,000 kt).
"We have increased FY26 group copper production guidance off the back of stronger delivery across our assets," BHP CEO Mike Henry said.
The average copper price BHP received over the quarter was up 32% from the prior year.
What are the experts saying?
Fairmont Equities' Michael Gable analysed the outlook for BHP shares late last week (courtesy of The Bull).
"Despite recent volatility, I expect commodity prices to continue heading higher during 2026," he said, which should offer tailwinds for BHP shares.
However, Gable isn't ready to pull the trigger just yet, issuing a hold recommendation on the Aussie mining giant.
According to Gable:
I believe investors who are still underweight in the resources sector will start to rotate into the miners.
Global diversified miner BHP Group, which recently was the biggest company on the ASX by market capitalisation, is likely to be the top choice of most investors looking for a blue chip company paying a healthy dividend amid the prospect of capital growth.
Stay tuned!
