Temple & Webster Group Ltd (ASX: TPW) shares will be closely watched today after a shocking 32% share price crash yesterday.
The company reported:
- Revenue rise of 19.8% to $375.9 million for H1 FY26
- EBITDA (pre-NZ investment) increased 13% to $14.9 million.
- Net cash rose 15.3% to $160.6 million as of 31 December 2025
- Active customers grew 14% year-on-year to ~1.4 million
- Repeat customers made up 62% of total orders
- Free cash flow of $23 million was generated during the half
However investors were not pleased with these results as the company endured a huge sell-off.
The Motley Fool's Aaron Teboneras reported yesterday that this was likely due to expectations not being met, as investors may have been hoping for stronger operating leverage at this stage of the cycle.
Its share price has now fallen 44% year to date, including Thursday's crash.
Following yesterday's result, the team at Bell Potter issued updated guidance on Temple & Webster shares
Here is what the broker had to say.
Image source: Getty Images
Earnings miss
Temple & Webster is an online-only retailer of furniture and homewares. Some of its products include office furniture, lighting, rugs, wall art, and home décor.
According to the report, Temple & Webster's 1H26 EBITDA was roughly a 12% miss to consensus.
The competitive environment coupled with a value driven customer has seen TPW pulling levers of price activation beyond supplier funded promotions during the seasonal period.
Bell Potter also noted key metrics like active customers (1.35m) and repeat rates (62%) were in line with its expectations, however revenue per customer was below.
The broker said while check-out revenue growth is tracking towards 2H26e estimates, challenging comps in 4Q26 sees modest changes to revenue estimates.
Our EBITDA forecasts -10%/-28%/-28% for FY26/27/28e.
Share price target drops
Based on this guidance, Bell Potter lowered its target price on Temple & Webster shares to $13.00 (previously $19.50).
Following yesterday's sell-off, Temple & Webster shares closed at $7.64.
The broker still has a buy recommendation on the consumer discretionary stock.
Its revised price target still indicates 70% upside.
Our views are unchanged of TPW's ability to outperform over the long term as market share capture in an expanded TAM is expedited with range, pricing/scale advantages, AI/data capability backed by a strong balance sheet (~$160m cash).
