This S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) healthcare share has been a rollercoaster.
Over the past year, Mesoblast Ltd (ASX: MSB) shares have swung wildly between $1.52 and $3.35, testing the nerves of even the most seasoned investor.
On Wednesday, the ASX healthcare share was back in the winner's circle, jumping 2.8% to $2.57.
Want to know the even better news? Brokers tip Mesoblast shares to surge over the next 12 months.
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Closing in on a breakthrough?
After years in the wilderness, Mesoblast roared back in 2025 as confidence rebuilt around its lead therapy, remestemcel-L. Now investors are asking: Is this the real turning point?
In January, Mesoblast revealed in a release that the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) had acknowledged positive results for its lead treatment. The therapy reduced pain in patients suffering from chronic lower back pain linked to degenerative disc disease.
Importantly, the FDA flagged that meaningful reductions in opioid use — seen in at least one major trial — could potentially be included on the product label. That's a big deal in a post-opioid-crisis world.
Mesoblast said many patients cut back or even stopped opioid use for extended periods after treatment.
Sales momentum builds
Momentum had already been building around the ASX healthcare share. In its latest quarterly update, Mesoblast reported net revenue of US$30 million for the quarter, fuelled by rising uptake of Ryoncil in the US.
Gross sales came in at US$35 million, with demand building steadily since the FDA approved the therapy for children with steroid-refractory acute graft-versus-host disease.
More treatment centres are now coming online, expanding access. Early real-world data also point to survival outcomes broadly in line with clinical trial results. That's an encouraging sign post-approval for the ASX healthcare share.
The risks haven't disappeared
The ASX 200 healthcare stock remains high risk. The company has burned through significant capital during its long development journey, repeatedly tapping shareholders to fund extended clinical trials and regulatory hurdles.
Past FDA setbacks have tested patience. Even if approvals land, the ASX healthcare share still needs to execute. It has to scale sales and compete in a crowded and fast-evolving cell-therapy market.
Brokers are backing it
Despite the risks, analysts are leaning bullish. The average 12-month price target sits at $4.16, implying roughly 62% upside from current levels.
According to TradingView data, all covering brokers rate Mesoblast a strong buy. Targets range from $3.33 (30% upside) to a blue-sky $5.05, which would represent a potential 97% gain.
Bell Potter believes the ASX healthcare share is in a strong position, backed by fresh debt funding and rising demand for its Ryoncil therapy.
The broker has a buy rating and $4.45 price target on its shares. This implies potential upside of approximately 80% for investors over the next 12 months.
