There are few ASX dividend stocks that are projected to pay a dividend yield as large as GQG Partners Inc (ASX: GQG) in the next few years.
The business is a funds management company that's headquartered in the US, though it has global operations in places like the UK, Europe, Canada, and Australia.
It offers clients a few different investment strategies, including US shares, global shares, international shares (excluding US shares), and emerging market shares. Investing in dividend shares is also an option.
After a difficult recent period of underperformance in 2025 due to limited exposure to technology businesses, that decision now looks wise, given how many tech stocks have sold off amid concerns about AI's impact on industries.
With investment performance beginning to look solid again compared to the benchmark, I wouldn't be surprised to see net inflows improve for GQG, considering good investment returns are ultimately what clients want to see.
It's important to note that the direction of the ASX dividend stock's funds under management (FUM) will play a very important part in the performance of its net profit and dividend.
We're going to have a look at how large the dividends could become in the coming years.
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Dividend projection
While the short term seems to suggest uncertainty for GQG's FUM and earnings, analysts are optimistic that payouts can grow in the subsequent years after 2026.
Broker UBS is currently forecasting that the ASX dividend stock could pay an annual dividend per share of US13 cents in FY26, US13 cents in FY27, US14 cents in FY28, and US15 cents in FY29.
At the current GQG share price, that translates into a dividend yield of 11.4% in FY26 and 13.1% by FY29.
I can't imagine there are many ASX dividend stocks that are going to pay a double-digit yield in FY26 and a larger payout in FY29.
Is this a good time to invest in GQG shares?
After the recent release of GQG's monthly FUM update for January 2026, broker UBS said the business was a buy, with a price target of $2, implying a potential double-digit return over the next year.
The January update showed FUM of US$165.7 billion, up 1.1% month over month, but below UBS' estimate of $167.2 billion, with net outflows accelerating to US$4.2 billion compared to the broker's estimate of $3 billion.
The net outflows of 2.5% of FUM was more than offset by a 3.6% rise in investment returns.
Outflows were stronger than expected in the emerging markets and US strategies across less visible institutional channels.
UBS now thinks net outflows could reach $31.5 billion in 2026, up from its previous forecast of $20 billion, which is higher than market analyst (consensus) estimates of $13.7 billion. A return to inflows is forecast for mid-2027. The broker said:
We continue to see value appeal as a market-hedge, noting recent AI-related market volatility in early Feb has benefited GQG's defensive positioning with performance green shoots emerging across its key strategies with strong absolute and relative returns.
…Our PT $2.00 (prev $2.10) incorporates our earnings changes and assumes a 10x PE given the depth of investment underperformance and outflows.
Clearly, this is a higher-risk idea, but if it's able to return to net inflows next year, it could be an undervalued opportunity offering big passive income.
