WiseTech Global Ltd (ASX: WTC) shares have fallen heavily over the past 12 months.
The decline has been so severe that the logistics solutions technology company's shares are now trading at their biggest discount in their history according to Bell Potter.
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WIseTech shares trading on huge discount
Bell Potter highlights that WiseTech shares are currently trading on an estimated FY 2027 EV/EBITDA multiple of around 18 times.
It notes that this is the lowest multiple that they have traded on during their history on the ASX boards, which spans almost a decade. The broker explains:
WiseTech is currently trading on an FY27 EV/EBITDA multiple of c.18x which is the lowest forward multiple in its listed history of almost ten years. There are perhaps several reasons for the relatively low multiple including recent management and board upheaval, shift to a new pricing model, large acquisition risk, potential for a downgrade/soft downgrade to FY26 guidance and erosion of its competitive moat from agentic AI.
While Bell Potter acknowledges that there have been reasons to be bearish at times, it feels the extent of this decline is unjustified. It adds:
These are all valid concerns to varying degrees but at this stage they do not individually or collectively cause us to change our forecasts and we continue to forecast high teens revenue growth and strong margin expansion in both FY27 and FY28 largely driven by the integration of e2open (and the realisation of synergies), the launch of new products including CTO and the shift to the new pricing model. We therefore believe the recent sell-off in the share price and the reduction in the forward EV/EBITDA multiple is unjustified and represents a key buying opportunity.
Big return potential
According to the note, Bell Potter has reaffirmed its buy rating on WiseTech shares with a trimmed price target of $87.50 (from $100.00).
Based on its current share price of $50.59, this implies potential upside of 73% for investors over the next 12 months.
To put that into context, a $10,000 investment would turn into approximately $17,300 by this time next year if Bell Potter is on the money with its recommendation.
Commenting on its buy rating, the broker concludes:
We have rolled forward our PE ratio and EV/EBITDA valuations by a year – so FY27 is now the base – and apply multiples of 55x and 30x respectively. We have also increased the WACC we apply in the DCF from 8.4% to 8.6% through an increase in the beta relating to the risk around erosion of the competitive moat from agentic AI.
The net result is a 13% decrease in our PT to $87.50 which is >15% premium to the share price so we maintain our BUY recommendation. Potential catalysts include the upcoming H1 result where in our view reiteration of the FY26 guidance would be a positive given the risk of a soft downgrade and the larger-than-usual H2 skew.
