BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) shares are trading in the green on Tuesday. At the time of writing the shares are 1.35% higher to $50.40 a piece. The increase means the stock is now 10.14% higher for the year-to-date and 25.72% higher than this time last year.
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What has driven BHP shares higher?
The mining giant gained the title of the largest stock on the ASX in January. The share price crossed the $50 mark in late-January. This pushed its market capitalisation to just over $253.5 billion.
But Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA) has since regained its crown, pushing BHP back into second place.
At the time of writing CBA has a market cap of $266 billion and BHP has a market cap of $356 billion.
This year, BHP's shares have been fuelled by the miner's first-half production update. In January, the mining giant confirmed its iron ore production had risen 2%, to 134 million tonnes, over the first-half of FY26. Its Western Australia Iron Ore (WAIO) operations achieved record high shipments.
Meanwhile steelmaking coal production was up 2% and energy coal production up 10% over the same period.
Elsewhere, copper production was flat versus the previous corresponding period at 984,000 tonnes. But the miner lifted its full year FY26 copper guidance to 1,900kt to 2,000 kt (up from guidance of 1,800kt to 2,000 kt previously).
The update followed strong production figures throughout 2025. Also in late 2025, the mining giant announced it had struck up a new US$2 billion infrastructure agreement with Global Infrastructure Partners (GIP), an investment group owned by BlackRock.
Investors are clearly pleased with the miners progress, with many buying into the stock.
Now the question is, how high can it go?
Can BHP shares break the $55 barrier?
The shares peaked at an all-time high of $52.40 a piece just last week. At the time of writing, they're just 3.8% below that level.
I don't think it wouldn't take much for the miner's share price to push past the $55 a piece barrier, especially if the Australian dollar continues to strengthen this year or the resources and commodities boom accelerates.
However, analyst sentiment on where the stock will travel this year is very mixed at present. TradingView data shows that 10 out of 19 analysts have a hold rating on the shares. Another six analysts have a buy or strong buy rating while three have a sell or strong sell rating.
Some are bullish that the share price could storm higher this year, and past $55 a piece too. The maximum target price is $56.64, which implies a 12.4% upside over the next 12 months, at the time of writing.
However others are a lot more bearish and think the mining stock could drop up to 28.6% to $35.98 this year.
