Don't buy CBA shares until this happens

This bank has a big announcement scheduled for next week…

| More on:

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More

It hasn't been a good period to have owned Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA) shares over the past six or seven months. Back in the middle of last year, CBA stock was riding high, having hit a new all-time record of $192 a share in late June. But since then, it has been nothing but bad news for this ASX 200 bank stock.

Since the June 2025 high, CBA shares have fallen by around 18%, going off the $156.96 share price we see on Wednesday (at the time of writing). The falls were even more painful (approaching 25%) when the bank got near $147 a share last month.

With a drop of this magnitude, many investors might be feeling tempted to 'buy the dip' on CBA. After all, this is one of the most popular stocks on the ASX, one that delivered a roughly 40% gain in 2024. Further, CBA is unquestionably one of the best-run businesses in Australia, commanding a clear market lead in Australian banking and financial services and enjoying phenomenal brand loyalty.

However, I would posit that investors anxious to get their hands on CBA shares at these lower prices should hold off for a few days. That's because CBA is scheduled to report its latest earnings next week on 11 February.

A man sits cross-legged in a zen pose on top of his desk as papers fly around his head, keeping calm amid the volatility.

Image source: Getty Images

Should investors wait until earnings before buying CBA shares?

Most ASX shares are required to report their latest financial results every six months. CBA is no different, and is taking its traditional place as one of the first companies off the line to deliver its results to shareholders for this February's earnings season.

It's particularly important for CBA this time around, given the meaningful share price correction it has just suffered. However, as we discussed this week, CBA is still trading at a relatively elevated valuation, whether measured by the price-to-earnings (P/E) or price-to-book (P/B) ratios, compared to both other ASX banks and banks around the world.

It's common for companies that the market judges as offering above-average quality to trade at lofty valuations. But, at the end of the day, investors will still want to see some decent growth to justify their investments.

This time last year, CBA delivered some numbers that didn't exactly set the world on fire. For the bank's half-year to 31 December 2024, CBA reported a 3% rise in operating income, a 2% increase in cash net profits after tax and a 2.3% improvement in cash earnings per share.

If CBA reports numbers that look like that next week, I think investors will start to wonder why they are paying a P/E ratio of almost 26 and a book ratio of over 3.

I'd certainly want to know what CBA managed to bring in over the second half of last year before committing to an investment with those kinds of valuations.

Motley Fool contributor Sebastian Bowen has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia's parent company Motley Fool Holdings Inc. has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool Australia has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. This article contains general investment advice only (under AFSL 400691). Authorised by Scott Phillips.

More on Bank Shares

A corporate team stands together and looks out the window.
Bank Shares

Here's the dividend forecast out to 2027 for AMP shares

Is this ASX financial stock a strong option for dividends?

Read more »

Woman with a concerned look on her face holding a credit card and smartphone.
Bank Shares

Are ASX bank shares a buy in August?

ASX bank shares have climbed higher in July so far. What's ahead for next month?

Read more »

Man holding different Australian dollar notes.
Bank Shares

Macquarie's verdict on the ASX banks: buy, sell or hold?

The big four are investor favourites, but are they good buys right now?

Read more »

Young businesswoman sitting in kitchen and working on laptop.
Bank Shares

Are Macquarie shares a standout buy?

Three divisions moved forward, one went backwards, and a new name is preparing to take control.

Read more »

Worried woman calculating domestic bills.
Bank Shares

How should I value the CBA share price?

The bank’s quality is widely recognised. The harder question is how much is already reflected in the price.

Read more »

Australian dollar notes around a piggy bank.
Bank Shares

How many Macquarie shares do I need to buy to generate $10,000 in passive income?

Macquarie could be a top choice for dividends.

Read more »

A man takes his dividend and leaps for joy.
Bank Shares

How many CBA shares do I need to buy for $12,000 of passive income?

CBA is the second-largest ASX 200 stock behind BHP Group in terms of market capitalisation.

Read more »

A woman wearing yellow smiles and drinks coffee while on laptop.
Broker Notes

Here's what brokers tip for CBA shares over the next 12 months

Five brokers have updated their ratings and 12-month price targets on CBA shares this month.

Read more »