Earnings season can be a difficult period for investors to navigate.
Investing before an ASX company releases its February earnings can offer upside if results beat expectations.
But it also carries higher risk because unexpected disappointments can trigger sharp price drops.
Investing after the earnings release reduces uncertainty. It allows investors react to confirmed information and guidance, though some of the biggest price moves may already be priced in, limiting short-term upside.
Here is an updated outlook for two ASX REIT stocks this earnings season.
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Centuria Office REIT (ASX: COF)
Yesterday, we saw share price swings for Centuria Office REIT following the release of HY26 results.
The share price fell roughly 2% before midday before recovering to finish 0.94% higher at approximately $1.07 per share.
A report from Bell Potter noted funds from operations (FFO) of 5.6 cents per share was slightly below expectations, coming in 0.9% under Bell Potter's forecast.
Despite this modest first-half earnings miss, the company reaffirmed its FY26 guidance for FFO of between 11.1 cents and 11.5 cents per share, with the midpoint of the range sitting 0.9% ahead of Bell Potter's estimate.
The ASX REIT also reaffirmed its full-year distribution guidance, with dividends per share expected to be 10.1 cents, signalling confidence in the full-year earnings and income outlook.
Bell Potter also noted some key vacancies at 818 Bourke St (currently 25% vacant) and 201 Pac Hwy (33% vacant) remain outstanding, which limits upside.
Following yesterday's results, the broker has placed a hold recommendation on the REIT, along with a price target of $1.05.
While we don't necessarily see numerous short term upside catalysts for COF, 1H26 outcomes suggest the likelihood of downside to guidance has reduced following the de-risking of FY26 expiries.
Charter Hall Retail REIT (ASX: CQR)
Charter Hall is set to release results tomorrow on Friday 6 February.
The company owns and manages a portfolio of convenience-focused retail properties. These include supermarket-anchored neighbourhood and subregional shopping centres, service stations, and some retail logistics properties.
It has performed well in the last year, rising roughly 20% in that span.
It closed yesterday at $3.87.
However, Citi currently has a buy rating and $4.50 price target on its shares.
Additionally, it is projecting dividend yields of more than 6%.
This could be an example of an REIT that investors may want to target before earnings results are released.
It has shown a track record of successful capital deployment and improving margins recently.
Should Charter Hall match or exceed expectations, the share price may jump considerably.
