Owning Macquarie Group Ltd (ASX: MQG) shares could be a strong pick for passive income over the longer-term as the business continues to invest for growth over the years.
The business has four different divisions – banking and financial services (BFS), asset management, investment banking and commodities and global markets (CGM). Impressively, it has global operations with around two-thirds of its income generated overseas.
But, in recent years, the business has worked on growing its presence in the Australian banking sector.
According to reporting by the Australian Financial Review, Macquarie's mortgage book rose by 2.45% in the month of December 2025, the fastest growth rate since June 2022. It was also 3.3x the average of all banks. Those numbers were based on APRA data.
Those numbers bode well for the ASX financial share and its ability to pay good dividends in the years ahead. With expectations of rising payouts for investors, let's take a look at the projections and how many Macquarie shares would be needed.
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Passive income projection
According to the forecast on Commsec, the business is projected to increase its annual dividend by 9.2% year-over-year in FY26 to $7.10. At the time of writing, that translates into a dividend yield of 3.3%, excluding any franking credits.
If an investor wanted to receive $1,000 of annual passive income in 2026 with that forecast dividend, that would mean that'd need to own 141 Macquarie shares.
However, the business has already paid its FY26 half-year dividend, so it may be useful to look at the projection for FY27 too because it's not too long until that financial year starts.
The forecast on Commsec suggests the business could grow its annual payout by 8.4% to $7.70. That would be a dividend yield of 3.6%, excluding any franking credits.
If an investor wanted to receive $1,000 of annual passive income based on the FY27 projection, someone would need 130 Macquarie shares.
Is this a good time to buy Macquarie shares?
Broker UBS thinks so, after recently changing its rating on the ASX financial share to a buy. UBS wrote:
Macquarie's profitability over the past three years (10.2% ROTE, compared to its long-term avg of 16.4%) has underperformed mkt expectations. This weaker performance contributed to an 8.3% decline in its share price in 2025, which lagged behind both the broader mkt and its peers.
With the need for improvement, we believe MAM's exit from public markets in the US and Europe, finalised in Dec '25, is a +ve development. This transition shifts the business focus further toward private markets, particularly infra. However, with ongoing concerns around CGM's performance and the timing of asset realisations, we think the mkt has not fully factored in the implications of this divestment on MAM's fee structure, and performance fee potential. Upgrade to Buy.
UBS currently has a price target of $235 on the business. That implies a possible rise of around 10% (at the time of writing) within the next year.
