Owning Woodside Energy Group Ltd (ASX: WDS) shares usually means getting good passive income in terms of the dividend yield.
The company's dividend can bounce around because it's heavily linked to the level of profit that the ASX energy share can generate. Energy prices play a very important role.
Woodside's production costs typically don't change much year to year per unit of production. That means that any additional revenue for that production largely adds to the net profit line (after paying more to the government), while a decline in that revenue largely cuts into net profit.
I think it's good to keep the above in mind when it comes to future dividend payments for owners of Woodside shares.
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FY25
The company's financial year follows the calendar year, so its FY25 has only recently finished. The ASX energy share recently released the 2025 fourth quarter update, giving brokers like UBS the chance to provide analysis on the company.
After seeing its production numbers and 2026 guidance, UBS said:
Woodside Energy (WDS) reported DQ25 production +4% & sales rev +7% ahead of market expectations due to stronger oil production from both Mad Dog (US Gulf Coast) & Sangomar (Senegal).
While Sangomar has started to decline from 4Q25, a beneficial one-off adjustment to WDS' share of production under the production sharing contract with the Senegalese Gov saw higher q/q production net to WDS.
New 2025 line item guidance, combined with stronger 4Q production sees us lift 2025E EPS +8% and bolstering the 2025E final div (we assume a payout of 80% of underlying NPAT.
…While the FY[25] result is now substantially de-risked, we remain cautious of a material forecast decline y/y into 2026 on NPAT & divs & FCF [free cash flow].
UBS is predicting that the business could decide to pay a final dividend per share of US 39 cents per share with the FY25 result, with the annual payout being US 92 cents per share.
FY26
We're already a month into the 2026 financial year for Woodside and UBS commented on the company's 2026 guidance. It said:
Despite strong 4Q oil production, new 2026 production guidance was 4% below consensus expectations at the midpoint. Production guidance by product points to weaker oil production in 2026 than the market expected (LNG production was in line). We believe the key driver of an implied 13% cut to cons 2026 oil production forecasts (to meet midpoint of guidance) is a faster decline rate at Sangomar followed by natural field decline in Aust. oil assets.
UBS is projecting that Woodside could pay an annual dividend per share of US 43 cents in FY26.
FY27
The dividend payout per Woodside share is expected by UBS to increase in the 2027 financial year.
The ASX energy share is predicted to pay an annual dividend per share of US 67 cents in FY27.
FY28
The 2028 financial year could see the company's annual dividend almost recover back to FY25 levels.
UBS' forecast suggests that the business could pay an annual dividend per share of US 83 cents in FY28.
FY29
The last year of this series of projections is the 2029 financial year, which is quite a while away in the world of energy.
UBS forecasts that the business could pay an annual dividend per share of US 77 cents in FY29.
