When a high-quality growth stock goes through a brutal reset, it naturally raises an important question. If the business recovers and sentiment improves, what could the upside actually look like?
That's the question I want to explore with WiseTech Global Ltd (ASX: WTC) shares.
WiseTech shares are trading at $58.67 on Friday, well below where the market once valued the company. Bell Potter currently has a buy recommendation and a $100 price target on the shares. If that target is reached and growth resumes at a more measured pace thereafter, the numbers start to get interesting.
Why WiseTech shares have been under pressure
WiseTech's share price pullback hasn't happened without reason. Growth in the core business slowed, and the company went through a difficult period marked by management and board upheaval, along with insider trading allegations involving founder and CEO Richard White.
As Bell Potter puts it, "WiseTech has also had a large pullback in its share price but this has been more driven by company specific issues like slowing growth in the core business, management and board upheaval and insider trading allegations against CEO and founder Richard White."
Those issues damaged confidence and distracted the market from the underlying business.
Why the outlook is improving
The reason Bell Potter remains constructive is that many of those issues appear to be easing, with attention shifting back to execution.
According to the broker, focus is returning to the core business, which is improving "with the launch of new products, a new commercial model and the integration of a large acquisition (e2open)." These initiatives are expected to drive a much stronger second half of FY26 relative to the first half, with FY27 shaping up as the first full year where the benefits are felt.
Bell Potter does flag that risks remain, including the possibility of a soft downgrade to FY26 revenue guidance at the half-year result. But it also notes that "the 12-month outlook is positive in our view."
What $1,000 could become over three years
Let's run through a simple scenario based on the current share price of $58.67 and a $1,000 investment.
If the shares were to climb to Bell Potter's $100.00 target over the next 12 months, that would represent a gain of roughly 70%.
In that scenario, the $1,000 investment would grow to approximately $1,700 after year one.
If WiseTech shares then deliver more steady growth of 10% per annum over the following two years, the numbers look like this:
After year two: $1,875
After year three: $2,062
That would see the original $1,000 investment more than double over three years.
Foolish Takeaway
Of course, this outcome is not guaranteed. WiseTech still needs to execute on its new commercial model, successfully integrate e2open, and restore trust with investors. Any further governance or operational missteps would likely delay or derail this scenario.
But what stands out to me is the asymmetry. The share price already reflects a lot of pessimism, while even a partial recovery in confidence and growth could deliver meaningful upside.
If WiseTech can put its difficult period behind it and return to more predictable execution, the path from $1,000 to around $2,000 over three years does not look unrealistic, in my opinion. It simply requires the business to do what it has done successfully for much of its history.
