BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) shares are marching higher today.
Shares in the S&P/ASX 200 Index (ASX: XJO) mining giant closed yesterday trading for $49.75. As we head into the Wednesday lunch hour, shares are changing hands for $50.61 each, up 1.7%.
After a strong nine-month run, this sees BHP now commanding a market cap of $257.5 billion. That's helping to cement its recently reclaimed title as the biggest stock on the ASX, surpassing the $252.1 billion market cap of Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA).
Amid a resurgent iron ore price and surging copper prices (BHP's number one and number two revenue earners), BHP shares have rocketed 48.5% from their 9 April one-year lows.
Atop those capital gains, the ASX 200 mining stock also trades on a fully-franked trailing dividend yield of 3.4%.
And according to Sanlam Private Wealth's Remo Greco, the stock's strong run could have a lengthy way to go yet (courtesy of The Bull).
Image source: Getty Images
Should you buy BHP shares today?
The first reason Greco is bullish on the ASX 200 miner is the outlook for ongoing global growth and the resources demand that growth entails.
According to Greco:
The resources upgrade cycle continues to unfold as global growth conditions strengthen into 2026. Expected US interest rate cuts should stimulate global growth and put downward pressure on the US dollar.
The second reason BHP shares could continue to outperform in 2026 is the relatively tight supply side of the global resource story.
Greco noted:
Commodity markets are already tight in terms of adequate supply, and this is already pushing mining stocks higher. This is a global theme. BHP fits the bill as global investors are drawn to earnings upgrades driving share price gains.
And the third reason you might want to buy shares in the biggest ASX stock is the potential for further strengthening of the Aussie dollar.
The Aussie dollar is currently fetching 70.2 US cents. That's up 5.1% from 66.8 US cents on 1 January.
Commenting on the potential impact on the returns from BHP shares, Greco said, "Also, investors are exposed to a currency gain if the Australian dollar strengthens during 2026."
ASX 200 mining stock eyeing ongoing strength in iron ore price
The copper price has rocketed 43% over the past 12 months. The red metal is currently trading for US$13,007 per tonne, with many analysts forecasting more gains ahead amid strong demand for the global energy transition.
And in potentially good news for BHP shares, the iron ore price may also defy some analyst forecasts of a sharp fall to US$80 per tonne.
Iron ore dipped to US$93 per tonne in early July and is currently fetching US$104 per tonne.
And according to the latest research from Deutsche Bank, iron ore prices should average comfortably above US$100 per tonne through 2026.
Deutsche Bank noted (quoted by The Australian Financial Review):
For 2026 as a whole, we forecast a balanced market with a bias towards surplus in H2; iron ore port inventories climbed through most of 2025 and currently sit at the highest level since 2022, while Chinese domestic steel demand continues to contract due to property market weakness.
Potential steel production regulation in China remains a theme, but the same had been said a year ago yet Chinese exports reached record levels in 2025. Our central assumption is only a modest reduction in steel exports in 2026.
We forecast average prices of $US106 a tonne in Q1 and $US102/t for 2026.
