The BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) share price reached a two-year high of $50.05 per share on Tuesday morning.
BHP shares have risen strongly in recent times — up 9.4% in a month and 23.5% over six months.
A strongly ascending copper price and a stable iron ore price are supporting the ASX 200's largest mining share.
BHP shares will likely reclaim the No. 1 spot on the ASX 200 from Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX: CBA) soon.
For fellow stock market nerds keeping score, there's about $4.2 billion in market capitalisation between the two stocks now.
The BHP share price would need to rise by about 85 cents to make up the difference, given there are 5.1 billion shares on issue.
BHP shares are not far off their historical all-time high now. The record is $54.55 per share, reached on 30 July 2021.
BHP half-year operations update
Last week, BHP released an operational update for 1H FY26.
BHP reported 984.1 kt of copper production, on par with 1H FY25, and with record output from Escondida.
Copper SA produced record refined gold output, which is handy given the skyrocketing gold price.
The gold price breached US$5,000 per ounce for the first time in history yesterday.
BHP increased its full-year FY26 guidance for copper from a range of 1,800 to 1,900 kt to 1,900 to 2,000 kt.
The miner also reported a 2% increase in iron ore production to 133.8 kt, with record output at Western Australia Iron Ore (WAIO).
There was a 2% lift in metallurgical coal production to 9.2 kt and a 10% increase in thermal coal production to 8.1 kt.
BHP revealed a $1 billion cost blow-out on Stage 1 of the Jansen potash project, which remains on track to begin production in mid-CY27.
Costs increased due to inflation, longer construction hours, design development and scope changes, and lower productivity forecasts.
BHP expects Stage 1, which is 75% complete, to produce about 4.15 million tonnes per annum (Mtpa) of potash.
The anticipated underlying EBITDA margins for Stage 1 remain strong at approximately 63% to 64%.
BHP CEO Mike Henry said:
Jansen will be a long life, low cost and scalable asset that will add a new, future facing commodity to BHP's portfolio, which we expect will generate value for shareholders over many decades.
Global demand for commodities
Henry also commented on the strong global demand for commodities:
China's commodity demand remains resilient, supported by targeted policy measures and solid exports. Momentum moderated in H2 CY25, notably in construction, manufacturing and infrastructure investments.
India is emerging as a key engine of demand, with strong domestic activity sustaining steel and rising copper needs.
Forecast global growth in 2026 is around 3%, creating a positive backdrop for commodity demand.
Where to now for the BHP share price?
Following BHP's update on 20 January, several analysts have updated their ratings and 12-month targets for the BHP share price.
Ord Minnett remains buy rated on BHP shares with a price target of $49.
Macquarie reiterated its hold rating with a price target of $48.
UBS maintained its hold rating but raised its target from $45 to $47.
JP Morgan kept its hold rating, too, but raised its target from $45.72 to $47.70.
Citi also kept its hold rating on BHP with a share price target of $48.
Berenberg Bank remains sell rated on BHP with a price target of $39.75.
The highest price targets for BHP shares today were all issued prior to the 1H FY26 update.
They are $57.70 from Goldman Sachs (buy rating), $56.50 from Morgan Stanley (buy), and $56 from Bank of America (buy).
