Boss Energy Ltd (ASX: BOE) shares are in retreat today.
Shares in the S&P/ASX 300 Index (ASX: XKO) uranium miner closed on Friday trading for $1.87. In early afternoon trade on Tuesday, shares are swapping hands for $1.82 apiece, down 2.9%.
For some context, the ASX 300 is up 1.0% at this same time.
Despite today's underperformance, shares remain up 54.2% since the stock plumbed multi-year closing lows of $1.18 apiece on 18 December. Those lows were driven by ongoing concerns over Boss Energy's flagship Honeymoon uranium project, located in South Australia.
That strong rebound will come as welcome news to shareholders, though not to the host of short-sellers betting against the company. Boss Energy shares are the second most shorted on the ASX this week, with a short interest of 16.3%.
So, do the short sellers have it right? Or can the embattled uranium miner keep charging higher in 2026?
Image source: Getty Images
Should you buy Boss Energy shares today?
Red Leaf Securities' John Athanasiou recently ran his slide rule over the ASX 300 stock (courtesy of The Bull).
"Boss Energy remains highly leveraged to uranium market sentiment, with its valuation reflecting optimistic production assumptions and pricing scenarios," said Athanasiou, who has a sell recommendation on Boss Energy shares.
According to Athanasiou:
Any operational delays or cost over-runs could impact returns. In our view, companies with clearer earnings visibility are a more appealing alternative. The stock has fallen from $4.48 on July 1, 2025 to trade at $1.78 on January 22, 2026.
The shares may remain under pressure in what can be a volatile sector.
And Athanasiou isn't alone in his concerns that the ASX uranium stock could remain under pressure.
Goldman Sachs recently initiated coverage on Boss with a sell rating.
The broker noted its concern over the outlook for "resource recovery, production rates, and cost structures" at the Honeymoon Uranium Project.
Goldman Sachs has a $1.20 price target on Boss Energy shares, or some 34% below current levels.
The bullish case
Not everyone is bearish on the ASX 300 uranium producer.
Morgan Stanley recently upgraded Boss Energy shares to an overweight rating
The broker believes that the market may be underestimating the production and sales potential at Honeymoon. Morgan Stanley also believes that costs could come in lower than consensus expectations.
With that in mind, the broker has a $2.05 price target on Boss Energy. That represents a potential upside of almost 13% from current levels.
