The analyst team at Jarden have run the ruler over the packaging giants listed on the ASX, and it's fair to say they like what they see.
For both of the majors, Amcor Plc (ASX: AMC) and Orora Ltd (ASX: ORA), they are projecting better than 25% returns.
Let's look at Amcor first.
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Takeover integration
The big news for Amcor over the past year has been its $8.4 billion merger with Berry Global, which was expected to deliver $650 million in synergies for the merged group.
Amcor said in April last year that it expected earnings per share accretion of 12% in FY26 from the synergies alone, with total earnings per share accretion growing to more than 35% by the end of FY28.
The Jarden team said in a research note to clients this week that, "following a period of Berry merger integration, investors are looking for signs that the Amcor business is delivering to expectations''.
The Jarden team said there were headwinds for the company, saying "evidence has emerged that customer and industry volumes have deteriorated''.
They added:
Amcor has guided to relatively flat volumes on the prior year in FY26, which seems ambitious given volumes were down in the low single digits in 1Q26 and we have seen further deterioration in customer results and commentary since then. Notwithstanding this, Amcor seems likely to flex cost and synergy levers as it attempts to reassure investors.
Jarden has a target price of $80.20 for Amcor shares, and once the 5.9% dividend yield is factored in, they project a total shareholder return of 29.6% over 12 months.
Plenty of room to improve
Meanwhile, over at Orora, Jarden said there are "very low expectations'' for the company, particularly on the earnings outlook for its Saverglass division.
Much has been made about the weakness of end demand and soft retail ⁄ customer volumes, and an ongoing debate we encounter is whether this is cyclical or a structural shift in demand for alcohol generally. Near term, we think this misses the point, especially as Orora cycles destocking from the prior ~18 months. Australian cans demand has likely remained strong and we look for delivery in line with expectations for Gawler.
Jarden said there are "no balance sheet concerns" for the company, and with "a path to improving free cash generation and potentially capital management from FY27, we see an attractive combination of catalysts for investors''.
Jarden has a $2.60 price target on Orora shares, which, combined with the 4.9% dividend, would represent a total shareholder return of 27.4% if achieved.
