National Australia Bank Ltd (ASX: NAB) remains a solid, well-established ASX bank. It is profitable, well capitalised, and continues to pay dividends that appeal to income investors.
However, heading into late January, I view NAB as fairly valued. That means future returns are likely to be driven more by dividends and modest earnings growth rather than any meaningful re-rating.
With that in mind, here are three ASX exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that I think could outperform NAB on a total return basis in 2026.
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iShares S&P 500 ETF (ASX: IVV)
The iShares S&P 500 ETF offers exposure to the world's largest and most influential stocks.
The ETF tracks the S&P 500, which is where you will find the 500 largest stocks on Wall Street in New York.
While the IVV ETF does not offer the same income profile as NAB, it provides a very different growth engine. I think if US corporate earnings continue to expand, this fund has the potential to deliver stronger capital growth than a mature Australian bank in 2026.
For investors looking beyond domestic financials, the iShares S&P 500 ETF is a simple way to access some of the best stocks in the world.
VanEck Video Gaming and Esports ETF (ASX: ESPO)
The VanEck Video Gaming and Esports ETF is another ETF I think has potential to outperform NAB shares in 2026.
It provides exposure to the global video gaming and esports industry.
This is a great area for investors to be focused on. Gaming has grown into a major form of digital entertainment, spanning console, mobile, and online platforms. The industry benefits from recurring revenue models, global audiences, and continued technological improvement.
Unlike NAB, which is closely tied to domestic credit growth, the ESPO ETF's underlying holdings are exposed to an industry that is predicted to increase materially over the remainder of the 2020s.
This ETF carries much higher risk than a bank stock, but it also offers exposure to a long-term structural trend.
BetaShares Global Cybersecurity ETF (ASX: HACK)
The BetaShares Global Cybersecurity ETF provides exposure to a structural growth theme that is largely independent of economic cycles.
Governments, consumers, businesses, and institutions continue to invest in protecting data and infrastructure, regardless of broader conditions.
The ETF holds a diversified portfolio of global cybersecurity companies involved in areas such as cloud security, identity protection, and threat detection. As digital systems expand and become more interconnected, the relevance of these services continues to grow.
Compared to a mature bank like NAB, the HACK ETF offers a higher-risk but potentially higher-reward profile. For investors comfortable with that, this trade-off could be worthwhile in 2026.
Why ETFs can have an edge over NAB shares
When a bank is fairly valued, returns tend to be steady but unspectacular. Dividends do much of the work, and capital growth is often limited.
ETFs that provide exposure to global markets or structural growth themes can offer a different return profile. While they may be more volatile in the short term, they also have the potential to outperform if growth trends play out.
Each carries different risks, but I think all three could plausibly outperform a fairly valued bank stock over the year ahead.
